Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Bologna Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Torino

Home Team
24%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
57%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 25.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Torino D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)

Bologna L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.30
# Clean Sheets: 1

Bologna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.97
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.81
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are favoured to take all three points, with a 57.0% probability of an away win against Torino, who have just a 24.0% chance at home (draw at 19.0%). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0%, despite a 56.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet. In the table, Bologna sit 10th on 30 points, one place and three points above 13th‑placed Torino on 27.

Match Analysis

Torino come into this with mixed signals. Their last three outings show a heavy 0-6 collapse away at Como, a gritty 1-0 home win over Lecce, and an encouraging 2-2 draw at Fiorentina. That inconsistency is mirrored in their numbers: they’ve scored just 0.8 goals per game over the last five, but their average expected goals of 1.79 suggests they are creating more than they’re finishing. Defensively, 1.2 goals conceded per game and one clean sheet in five underline a team that can be solid, but is prone to occasional blow‑ups like the Como defeat. Bologna, meanwhile, are on a three-match losing streak (2-3 at Genoa, then 0-3 and 0-1 home defeats to Milan and Parma), but those games were more open and attacking. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five, pointing to lively matches at both ends. Interestingly, their expected goals for (0.968) is below their actual scoring, while their expected goals against (1.81) is lower than the two they concede on average, hinting at some defensive underperformance and maybe opponents being clinical. With Bologna slightly higher in the standings and more potent in front of goal recently, the away side gets the edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an under 2.5 outcome (51.0% vs 49.0% for over), so the official call is under 2.5 despite a narrow margin. Two of Torino’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (0-6 at Como, 2-2 at Fiorentina), with only the 1-0 win over Lecce staying under. Bologna also had two of their last three go over (2-3 at Genoa, 0-3 vs Milan) and just one under (0-1 vs Parma), but their low recent xG of 0.968 and Torino’s modest 0.8 goals scored per game lend support to a cautious over 2.5 prediction stance and reinforce the under 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 8.92, suggesting a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage from either side. Torino’s last three have seen 7, 11 and 6 corners respectively, while Bologna’s have produced 7, 5 and 7, all hovering around that 6–11 range. Both teams generate a fair number of shots without being relentlessly high‑tempo sides, so the predicted corners figure fits a game where attacks build more through careful play than constant wing bombardment.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this fixture is 25.78 in total, indicating a reasonably active attacking game. Torino’s last three outings saw them record 7, 17 and 12 shots, while facing 17, 14 and 21 – numbers that show matches often open up around them. Bologna have attempted 13, 13 and 16 shots in their last three, with opponents taking 8, 10 and 5, which aligns well with a shots prediction in the mid‑20s, especially given their higher recent scoring compared to their xG.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s stronger league position, recent scoring rate (1.6 goals per game) and Torino’s defensive volatility give the visitors the advantage in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how Torino’s underlying chance creation (1.79 xG per game) translates against a Bologna defence conceding 2.0 goals per match – if Torino finally finish at their xG level, this could be closer than the probabilities suggest.

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