Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Lecce Prediction
Udinese
Home Team
79%
VS
Lecce
Away Team
9%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
50%
No Goal:
50%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milan | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Inter | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Napoli | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Bologna | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Como | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Udinese | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Lazio | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Cagliari | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Torino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Lecce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Verona | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Pisa | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Udinese
- Last Match: vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
Lecce
- Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 4)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Udinese
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.10
# Clean Sheets:
1
Lecce
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.43
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
In the upcoming Serie A clash, Udinese is heavily favored to secure a victory against Lecce, with a commanding 79.0% probability of winning. The likelihood of a draw stands at 12.0%, while the chances of Lecce pulling off an upset are a slim 9.0%. The predicted result is a home team win, with the match expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, given the 47.0% probability for over 2.5 goals. Udinese currently sits 11th in the league standings, whereas Lecce is positioned at 16th.
Match Analysis
Udinese's recent form has been a mixed bag, reflecting in their last three games where they have drawn twice and lost once. Their away draw against Cremonese and home draw against Cagliari highlight their current struggle to convert matches into wins, despite scoring once in each game. The loss to Sassuolo, where they conceded three goals, further underscores their defensive vulnerabilities. However, their expected goals (xG) figures suggest they are capable of creating opportunities, with an average of 1.446 expected goals scored per game in their last five.
On the other hand, Lecce has shown glimpses of resilience in their recent fixtures, securing a victory against Parma and holding Bologna to a draw in a high-scoring affair. Their goalless draw against Sassuolo suggests a solid defensive display, contributing to two clean sheets in their last five matches. Despite this, Lecce's offensive output remains low, with an average of just 0.566 expected goals per game, indicating challenges in breaking down defenses.
Final Prediction
Udinese's higher probability of winning is bolstered by their ability to create more scoring opportunities, as indicated by their superior expected goals metric compared to Lecce. As such, their potential to edge out a win hinges on converting these chances while tightening up defensively. A key factor to watch will be Udinese's ability to capitalize on their home advantage and turn their expected goals into actual goals against a defensively sturdy Lecce side.