Serie A 2026-2027: Udinese vs Roma Prediction - 31 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Udinese

Home Team
21%
VS

Roma

Away Team
59%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 27.1
Expected Spread: -0.7

Why the Model Leans Roma

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Chance creation (xG data) +14.8 Roma
Home advantage +12.9 Udinese
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.5 Roma
Attack +6.6 Roma
Defense +3.0 Roma

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 74% for Roma. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Roma attack & chance creation +6.2 Over
Udinese defense +3.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Udinese attack & chance creation +1.1 Over
Form & results +0.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 9 8 1 0 25 10 15 25
2 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22 7 15 25
3 Roma 9 6 3 0 23 8 15 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Milan 9 5 3 1 18 11 7 18
6 Frosinone 9 5 2 2 22 14 8 17
7 Napoli 9 4 2 3 17 11 6 14
8 Juventus 9 4 2 3 11 10 1 14
9 Torino 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13
10 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8 13 -5 13
11 Bologna 9 3 2 4 12 12 0 11
12 Atalanta 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
13 Genoa 9 3 1 5 8 13 -5 10
14 Lecce 9 3 0 6 10 19 -9 9
15 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14 22 -8 8
16 Monza 9 2 1 6 16 22 -6 7
17 Udinese 9 1 2 6 9 18 -9 5
18 Fiorentina 9 1 2 6 11 21 -10 5
19 Parma 9 1 2 6 5 15 -10 5
20 Venezia 9 1 0 8 6 19 -13 3

Recent Trends

Udinese D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)

Roma W D W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 2.52
Clean Sheets 1

Roma

xG (avg) 2.39
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are favoured to win at 59%, with a draw at 20% and a Udinese victory at 21%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 63%.

Match Analysis

Roma’s stronger chance creation and attack are central to the gap between the sides. They have scored 2.25 goals per game away from home, while Udinese have conceded 1.8 per game at home. Roma have also allowed just 0.75 goals per away match, a defensive record that contrasts with Udinese’s recent struggles to score. Udinese have failed to find the net in three consecutive matches: their latest was a 0-0 draw with Parma, following home defeats of 0-2 to Milan and 0-3 to Lecce. There is some reason to expect a better attacking return at home, though: Udinese have created 1.2 expected goals per home game while scoring only 0.4. Roma, meanwhile, scored nine goals across their latest three matches, including a 4-2 win over Cagliari and a 3-3 draw with Napoli.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The forecast leans over 2.5 goals at 63%. Roma’s attack and chance creation are the strongest push towards a higher total, with Udinese’s home defending also pointing that way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.4 corners. Recent matches included 9 corners in Udinese’s game with Parma and 15 in Roma’s draw with Napoli, supporting a busy count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 27 shots in total. Recent games have featured plenty of attempts, including 39 in Roma’s matches against Cagliari and Napoli.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Udinese wins by X goals. Negative = Roma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Udinese vs Roma with expected spread of -0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Udinese vs Roma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about seven-tenths of a goal in Roma’s favour. That reflects the visitors’ advantage in the win forecast, despite Udinese playing at home.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s chance of upsetting the forecast depends on turning home chances into goals. Their recent scoring drought makes that a significant hurdle, but the gap between their home expected goals and actual scoring suggests there may be room for improvement.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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