Serie A 2026-2027: Venezia vs Inter Prediction - 28 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Venezia

Home Team
12%
VS

Inter

Away Team
75%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 28.7
Expected Spread: -1.2

Why the Model Leans Inter

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Chance creation (xG data) +17.0 Inter
Home advantage +12.9 Venezia
Defense +10.4 Inter
Attack +10.3 Inter
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +6.8 Inter

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 87% for Inter. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Inter attack & chance creation +7.9 Over
Venezia defense +4.2 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Inter defense +2.2 Under
Venezia attack & chance creation +1.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23 10 13 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16 5 11 22
3 Roma 8 5 3 0 19 6 13 18
4 Milan 8 5 3 0 16 7 9 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14 7 7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17 13 4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11 8 3 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13 11 2 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6 9 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13 10 3 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14 15 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9 14 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8 10 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12 16 -4 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15 18 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6 13 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9 18 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9 19 -10 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5 15 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6 17 -11 3

Recent Trends

Venezia L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 4)

Inter W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 5 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Venezia

xG (avg) 1.69
xGA (avg) 2.48
Clean Sheets 1

Inter

xG (avg) 3.39
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are favoured to win at 75%, with a Venezia victory at 12% and a draw at 14%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a 64% probability.

Match Analysis

Inter’s advantage rests on creating more chances and defending more reliably. Their away-from-home expected goals average of 3.4, compared with 2.0 goals scored, suggests their finishing has lagged behind the quality of chances. Venezia’s home advantage offers some counterweight, but their recent home defensive figures point to a difficult task against Inter’s attack. Inter arrive on three straight wins, beating Fiorentina 2-1, Bologna 3-1 and Parma 3-0. Venezia have had mixed results, including a 1-0 home win over Napoli, but their latest outing ended in a 1-0 defeat to Genoa. Inter’s ability to turn their strong chance creation into goals is the clearest difference between the teams.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Venezia
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%. Inter’s attacking threat and Venezia’s defensive record are the strongest reasons for expecting goals, though Inter’s own defending gives the under some support.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Venezia
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.0 corners. Venezia’s recent matches have featured plenty of corners, while Inter’s last three have produced fewer, leaving the projection around that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Venezia
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 29 shots. Inter’s 33 attempts against Fiorentina and their strong chance creation point to a busy day for the defences.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Venezia wins by X goals. Negative = Inter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Venezia vs Inter with expected spread of -1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Venezia vs Inter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 1.2 goals in Inter’s favour. That fits the visitors’ stronger win probability and their advantage in attack and defence.

Final Prediction

Venezia’s ability to create chances at home is the clearest route to upsetting the forecast. If those opportunities produce more goals than their recent home scoring rate suggests, Inter could be made to work harder than expected.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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