Serie A 2026-2027: Venezia vs Napoli Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Venezia

Home Team
30%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
45%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 30.2
Expected Spread: -0.2

Why the Model Leans Napoli

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Venezia
Chance creation (xG data) +9.7 Napoli
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.1 Napoli
Attack +4.2 Napoli
Results & dominance +1.6 Napoli

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Napoli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Venezia defense +4.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Venezia attack & chance creation +1.8 Over
Napoli attack & chance creation +0.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 6 5 1 0 18 8 10 16
2 Lazio 6 5 1 0 11 4 7 16
3 Roma 6 4 2 0 14 3 11 14
4 Cagliari 6 4 1 1 6 3 3 13
5 Milan 6 3 3 0 11 5 6 12
6 Juventus 6 3 2 1 9 5 4 11
7 Como 6 3 2 1 9 6 3 11
8 Napoli 6 3 1 2 10 6 4 10
9 Frosinone 6 3 1 2 9 7 2 10
10 Atalanta 6 3 0 3 8 8 0 9
11 Sassuolo 6 2 2 2 10 10 0 8
12 Torino 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
13 Lecce 6 2 0 4 6 12 -6 6
14 Bologna 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
15 Udinese 6 1 1 4 9 13 -4 4
16 Monza 6 1 1 4 9 15 -6 4
17 Genoa 6 1 1 4 5 11 -6 4
18 Parma 6 1 1 4 4 10 -6 4
19 Fiorentina 6 1 1 4 7 14 -7 4
20 Venezia 6 0 0 6 5 16 -11 0

Recent Trends

Venezia L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Frosinone (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)

Napoli W D W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Frosinone (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Venezia

xG (avg) 2.02
xGA (avg) 2.45
Clean Sheets 0

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.87
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are the most likely winners at 45%, with Venezia on 30% and a draw on 25%. Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.

Match Analysis

Napoli are favored despite Venezia’s home advantage. The visitors have created better chances and rate more strongly overall, while Venezia’s defensive record leaves little room for error: they have conceded 16 goals in six league matches and kept no clean sheets in their last five. Their latest loss was 1-3 away to Atalanta, following defeats of 0-2 to Lazio and 2-4 to Fiorentina. Venezia’s home chance creation could still trouble Napoli. At home, they have averaged 2.0 expected goals but scored only 0.7 per game, a notable gap between chances and goals. Napoli have taken seven points from their last three matches, most recently beating Frosinone 3-0 after drawing 1-1 away to Fiorentina and beating Bologna 1-0.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Venezia
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 59%, with Venezia’s defending the clearest reason: they have conceded 16 times in six matches. Both sides’ attacking chances also point toward goals, though Venezia have not consistently converted theirs.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Venezia
Corners in last 5 matches
Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.7 corners. Napoli’s last three matches produced 10, 9 and 10 corners in total, supporting a projection around that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Venezia
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 30 shots. Napoli’s latest match had 36 shots and Venezia’s had 41, suggesting both teams can contribute to a busy game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Venezia wins by X goals. Negative = Napoli wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Venezia vs Napoli with expected spread of -0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Venezia vs Napoli
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The figures point to Napoli by about 0.2 goals. That is a narrow away-side margin, consistent with Napoli’s higher win probability.

Final Prediction

Venezia’s home chance creation is the clearest route to changing the forecast. If they turn more of those opportunities into goals, Napoli may not be able to rely on Venezia’s recent finishing problems.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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