NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
78.6%
120.5 pts
VS

Memphis Grizzlies

Away Team
21.4%
108.2 pts

Key Prediction Insights

The Oklahoma City Thunder are predicted to come out on top against the Memphis Grizzlies with a probability of 78.6%. The expected scoreline is 120.5 for the Thunder and 108.2 for the Grizzlies. The anticipated starting five for the Thunder includes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, and Kenrich Williams. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are expected to start Cam Spencer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Game Analysis

Over the last three games, the Oklahoma City Thunder have demonstrated a mixed bag of performances. They secured a decisive win against the Los Angeles Clippers with a 122-101 scoreline but suffered narrow losses to both the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a standout performer with an average of 32.52 points per game, significantly contributing to the Thunder's offensive strength. On the other hand, the Memphis Grizzlies have shown resilience with two wins out of their last three games. They triumphed over the Clippers and Timberwolves but fell short against the Washington Wizards. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been pivotal for the Grizzlies, averaging 17.96 points per game, but the team will need to tighten its defensive play, as indicated by their higher defensive ratings. The Thunder's starting five boasts an impressive blend of offensive prowess and defensive capability, with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge in both domains. In contrast, the Grizzlies will rely on their balanced scoring from players like Santi Aldama and Jackson Jr., but their defensive ratings suggest vulnerabilities that the Thunder could exploit.

Final Prediction

The Oklahoma City Thunder hold a distinct edge due to their superior offensive rating and the standout performance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The key factor to watch will be how effectively the Thunder can capitalize on the Grizzlies' defensive weaknesses to maintain their predicted scoring advantage.