NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
73.5%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
26.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 28.3 REB 4.4 AST 6.3 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 14.5 REB 4.0 AST 3.7 3PM 0.8
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PTS 6.5 REB 3.3 AST 1.1 3PM 1.9
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PTS 17.6 REB 8.9 AST 1.5 3PM 1.1
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PTS 8.3 REB 9.6 AST 2.7 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 18.6 REB 3.4 AST 5.0 3PM 1.4
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PTS 18.5 REB 5.2 AST 6.0 3PM 1.0
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PTS 12.8 REB 3.8 AST 2.1 3PM 2.0
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PTS 10.2 REB 5.0 AST 1.4 3PM 2.1
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PTS 23.0 REB 10.8 AST 2.3 3PM 1.3
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.1
DR
108.6
PTS
30.9
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.3
DR
112.3
PTS
18.6
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
119.2
DR
110.0
PTS
17.3
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.5
DR
110.9
PTS
17.1
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.1
DR
111.6
PTS
8.2
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.5
DR
112.6
PTS
13.7
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
126.3
DR
103.2
PTS
17.3
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
121.2
DR
110.7
PTS
11.1
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
127.9
DR
103.1
PTS
9.3
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.4
DR
98.7
PTS
24.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (73.5% probability). Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein; San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 221.47 points, signaling a moderately high-scoring affair and a likely uptempo pace for both teams. The projected spread is Home - Away: 6.29 points in favor of the home side, giving a clear single-digit advantage to whichever team is hosting — and aligning with the Thunder as favorites in this matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.5 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - San Antonio Spurs) 6.3 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s rating has been rising steadily and more sharply than San Antonio’s, while San Antonio shows a milder upward trend.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1751.2 +28.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-11 Los Angeles Lakers 1751.2 +6.3
2026-05-09 Los Angeles Lakers 1744.9 +8.0
2026-05-07 Los Angeles Lakers 1736.9 +7.0
2026-05-05 Los Angeles Lakers 1729.9 +7.2
2026-04-27 Phoenix Suns 1722.7 —

San Antonio Spurs

1727.3 +10.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-15 Minnesota Timberwolves 1727.3 +8.5
2026-05-12 Minnesota Timberwolves 1718.8 +7.7
2026-05-10 Minnesota Timberwolves 1711.1 -12.6
2026-05-08 Minnesota Timberwolves 1723.7 +7.2
2026-05-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1716.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 115 110 +5
Los Angeles Lakers 131 108 +23
Los Angeles Lakers 125 107 +18
Los Angeles Lakers 108 90 +18
Phoenix Suns 131 122 +9

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 139 109 +30
Minnesota Timberwolves 126 97 +29
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 114 -5
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 108 +7
Minnesota Timberwolves 133 95 +38

Game Analysis

Oklahoma City arrives on a three-game winning streak over the Lakers (115-110, 131-108, 125-107), showing consistent offensive firepower and the ability to close games. San Antonio is 2-1 in its last three, including two decisive wins over Minnesota (139-109, 126-97) and one close loss (109-114), so they’ve demonstrated they can both light it up and recover quickly. Both teams bring momentum, but OKC’s recent string is cleaner and more consistent. Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of 122.92 and a defensive rating of 107.30, with a combined per-starter scoring average of 16.60 points; San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.78 and a defensive rating of 109.04, with 16.98 points per starter. Those numbers suggest the Thunder have the edge on both ends, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring and efficient two-way pieces like Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Final Prediction

The Thunder’s stronger two-way profile and cleaner recent form give them the edge in this matchup. Watch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander versus Victor Wembanyama — how Shai is defended and whether Wembanyama can slow OKC’s interior production will likely decide the outcome.

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