NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

New York Knicks

Home Team
58.8%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
41.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 25.9 REB 3.8 AST 6.2 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.1 REB 7.2 AST 4.8 3PM 1.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.1 REB 4.1 AST 2.9 3PM 1.5
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.1 REB 5.3 AST 1.8 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.4 REB 10.3 AST 4.3 3PM 1.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 21.9 REB 4.4 AST 6.8 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.5 REB 4.3 AST 5.2 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 5.5 REB 3.9 AST 1.5 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.2 REB 8.4 AST 4.2 3PM 0.9
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PTS 14.9 REB 7.6 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
122.0
DR
115.7
PTS
26.3
VS
James Harden
OR
117.8
DR
115.9
PTS
20.2
SG
Josh Hart
OR
118.4
DR
109.9
PTS
11.8
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.2
DR
115.3
PTS
27.5
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.7
DR
113.2
PTS
14.3
VS
Dean Wade
OR
132.5
DR
114.8
PTS
5.6
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
121.1
DR
111.3
PTS
17.1
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.0
DR
111.9
PTS
17.9
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
124.6
DR
108.7
PTS
19.7
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.9
DR
111.4
PTS
14.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the New York Knicks to win with a 58.8% probability. Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

This game projects a combined total of 220.87 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring outing and a brisk offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 7.05, which implies about a seven-point advantage to the home side — a cushion that supports the Knicks’ edge in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 220.9 Most likely outcome: 220 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Cleveland Cavaliers) 7.0 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

The Knicks’ power rating has climbed strongly (+31.3 over five games), while the Cavaliers show a modest rise (+6.4), so New York has clearer upward momentum.

New York Knicks

1677.6 +31.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-19 Cleveland Cavaliers 1677.6 +8.1
2026-05-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1669.5 +8.5
2026-05-08 Philadelphia 76ers 1661.0 +7.9
2026-05-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1653.1 +6.8
2026-05-04 Philadelphia 76ers 1646.3 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1615.3 +6.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-19 New York Knicks 1615.3 -8.1
2026-05-17 Detroit Pistons 1623.4 +14.8
2026-05-15 Detroit Pistons 1608.6 -12.0
2026-05-13 Detroit Pistons 1620.6 +11.7
2026-05-11 Detroit Pistons 1608.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 115 104 +11
Philadelphia 76ers 144 114 +30
Philadelphia 76ers 108 94 +14
Philadelphia 76ers 108 102 +6
Philadelphia 76ers 137 98 +39

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 104 115 -11
Detroit Pistons 125 94 +31
Detroit Pistons 94 115 -21
Detroit Pistons 117 113 +4
Detroit Pistons 112 103 +9

Game Analysis

New York comes in hot with three straight wins, including a 115-104 victory over Cleveland and two wins over Philadelphia (144-114 and 108-94). That stretch highlights the Knicks’ balanced attack and improving defense. Cleveland is 1-2 over the last three, falling to New York 115-104, splitting games with Detroit (125-94 win, 94-115 loss), showing inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the projected starters, New York’s five average offensive rating is 122.36 and defensive rating is 111.76, with an average of 17.84 points made per starter; Cleveland’s starters average offensive rating 123.68 and defensive rating 113.86, with 17.20 points made per starter. Those numbers suggest the Knicks boast a slightly better team defense on paper and comparable offensive firepower, which can decide a close game.

Final Prediction

The Knicks’ stronger recent form and better defensive rating give them the edge in this matchup, fitting the 58.8% win probability. Key factor to watch: how Karl-Anthony Towns and New York’s perimeter defenders match up with Jarrett Allen and the Donovan Mitchell/James Harden scoring tandem.

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