NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
64.2%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
35.8%
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HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
21.4
REB
5.0
AST
6.7
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
25.4
REB
4.5
AST
5.4
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dean Wade
PTS
5.9
REB
4.1
AST
2.0
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
17.8
REB
8.6
AST
4.5
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jarrett Allen
PTS
15.2
REB
8.3
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.9
REB
3.8
AST
6.3
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
11.9
REB
6.7
AST
4.8
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
12.9
REB
4.1
AST
2.9
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
15.3
REB
5.3
AST
1.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
17.0
REB
10.3
AST
4.0
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
117.9
DR
115.9
PTS
20.2
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.9
DR
115.7
PTS
26.3
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.3
DR
115.4
PTS
27.5
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.4
DR
109.8
PTS
12.0
SF
Dean Wade
OR
131.9
DR
115.0
PTS
5.6
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.1
DR
113.2
PTS
14.3
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.3
DR
112.0
PTS
17.9
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
121.6
DR
111.2
PTS
17.1
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.8
DR
111.5
PTS
14.8
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
124.6
DR
108.6
PTS
19.6
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win this one with a 64.2% probability.
Expected starting five — Cleveland: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 216.79 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with room for both teams to score in transition and half-court sets. The expected spread is Home - Away = 3.38, giving the home side a slim 3.38-point edge (the home team is favored by just over a field goal).
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
216.8
Most likely outcome: 216 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - New York Knicks)
3.4
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s power rating has dipped over the last five games (1620.6 → 1606.8) while New York’s has climbed steadily (1653.1 → 1686.0), so the Knicks carry upward momentum while the Cavs have cooled a bit.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1606.8
-13.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | New York Knicks | 1606.8 | -8.5 |
| 2026-05-19 | New York Knicks | 1615.3 | -8.1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Detroit Pistons | 1623.4 | +14.8 |
| 2026-05-15 | Detroit Pistons | 1608.6 | -12.0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Detroit Pistons | 1620.6 | — |
New York Knicks
1686.0
+32.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1686.0 | +8.4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1677.6 | +8.1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1669.5 | +8.5 |
| 2026-05-08 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1661.0 | +7.9 |
| 2026-05-06 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1653.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 93 | 109 | -16 | |
| New York Knicks | 104 | 115 | -11 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 125 | 94 | +31 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 94 | 115 | -21 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 117 | 113 | +4 |
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 93 | +16 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 115 | 104 | +11 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 144 | 114 | +30 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 94 | +14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 102 | +6 |
Game Analysis
In the last three matchups the Knicks have taken both head-to-head wins over Cleveland (109-93 and 115-104) and followed with a 144-114 win over Philadelphia, putting New York on a three-game win streak; Cleveland is 1-2, with a recent strong 125-94 win over Detroit but back-to-back losses to New York. Those results underline New York’s recent cohesion and Cleveland’s inconsistency despite flashes of dominance.
Looking at the expected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 123.64 and a defensive rating of 113.96, with starters averaging 17.20 points each. New York’s projected five average an offensive rating of 122.52 and a stronger defensive rating of 111.70, with starters averaging 17.86 points each. The Cavs hold a slight edge offensively while the Knicks look stronger on defense and have marginally higher scoring from their starters.
Final Prediction
Cleveland gets the edge here because the model favors them by probability and the projected spread, and their starting group posts a marginally higher offensive rating that can pressure New York. Watch how Cleveland’s bigs — Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — handle Karl-Anthony Towns and whether Donovan Mitchell/Harden can crack the Knicks’ improving defense.
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