NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
62.0%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
38.0%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.6
REB
4.9
AST
6.5
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
25.6
REB
4.5
AST
5.4
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dean Wade
PTS
6.3
REB
4.1
AST
2.1
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
18.0
REB
8.4
AST
4.1
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
15.1
REB
8.1
AST
1.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.2
REB
3.9
AST
6.2
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
12.7
REB
6.5
AST
4.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
13.4
REB
4.1
AST
2.9
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
OG Anunoby
PTS
14.9
REB
5.2
AST
1.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
16.7
REB
9.8
AST
3.6
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
117.3
DR
116.1
PTS
20.2
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.9
DR
115.7
PTS
26.3
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
118.9
DR
115.5
PTS
27.5
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.1
DR
109.7
PTS
12.0
SF
Dean Wade
OR
130.9
DR
115.1
PTS
5.5
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.1
DR
113.1
PTS
14.4
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.0
DR
112.2
PTS
17.9
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
122.2
DR
111.3
PTS
17.1
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
129.4
DR
111.7
PTS
14.8
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.0
DR
108.5
PTS
19.6
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers to win (62.0% probability).
Expected starting five — Cleveland: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game projects a combined total of 217.67 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring affair and a fairly up-tempo game flow. The expected spread is 3.04 (home − away), giving the home side roughly a three-point edge going into tipoff.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
217.7
Most likely outcome: 217 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - New York Knicks)
3.0
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s rating has slipped over the last five games while New York’s has risen sharply.
Cleveland Cavaliers
1597.7
-10.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | New York Knicks | 1597.7 | -9.1 |
| 2026-05-21 | New York Knicks | 1606.8 | -8.5 |
| 2026-05-19 | New York Knicks | 1615.3 | -8.1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Detroit Pistons | 1623.4 | +14.8 |
| 2026-05-15 | Detroit Pistons | 1608.6 | — |
New York Knicks
1695.2
+34.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1695.2 | +9.2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1686.0 | +8.4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1677.6 | +8.1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1669.5 | +8.5 |
| 2026-05-08 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1661.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 108 | 121 | -13 | |
| New York Knicks | 93 | 109 | -16 | |
| New York Knicks | 104 | 115 | -11 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 125 | 94 | +31 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 94 | 115 | -21 |
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 121 | 108 | +13 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 93 | +16 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 115 | 104 | +11 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 144 | 114 | +30 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 94 | +14 |
Game Analysis
The recent slate heavily favors New York: the Knicks swept the last three meetings (121-108, 109-93, 115-104), leaving Cleveland on a three-game skid against this opponent. Those results reflect the Knicks’ momentum and their ability to close out both ends. Meanwhile Cleveland will be looking to respond after consecutive losses in the same series.
Looking at the expected starting units, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 123.3, defensive rating of 114.1, and about 17.2 points per starter; Donovan Mitchell (27.5) and James Harden (20.2) are the primary scoring threats. New York’s starters average an offensive rating of 122.7, defensive rating of 111.7, and about 17.9 points per starter, led by Jalen Brunson (26.3) and Karl-Anthony Towns (19.6). The Cavaliers carry a slight offensive edge on paper, but the Knicks boast the better collective defensive numbers and current form.
Final Prediction
Cleveland gets the nod because their offensive balance—Mitchell/Harden complemented by strong inside play from Mobley and Allen—should be enough in a close game. Key factor to watch: whether New York’s improved defense (team defensive rating ~111.7) can contain Cleveland’s primary scorers and tilt the series of matchups.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel