Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
49.6%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
50.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Philadelphia 76ers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +9.5 Philadelphia 76ers
Home-court advantage +7.6 Cleveland Cavaliers
Season record & ratings +1.4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Home/road record +0.5 Philadelphia 76ers

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Philadelphia 76ers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 20.5 REB 5.2 AST 4.7 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.6 REB 7.8 AST 2.8 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 5.4 AST 4.9 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.0 REB 7.8 AST 1.3 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.7 REB 4.9 AST 2.5 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 20.4 REB 8.8 AST 4.2 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.0 REB 6.6 AST 3.4 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.1 REB 6.9 AST 6.7 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.0 REB 4.6 AST 4.9 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.5 REB 6.2 AST 2.9 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.5
DR
115.8
PTS
22.5
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
101.9
DR
102.4
PTS
19.6
SG
Evan Mobley
OR
130.6
DR
115.0
PTS
18.8
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
113.4
DR
106.9
PTS
21.8
SF
James Harden
OR
112.5
DR
115.5
PTS
16.6
VS
LeBron James
OR
108.3
DR
101.1
PTS
15.7
PF
Jarrett Allen
OR
118.6
DR
112.1
PTS
13.2
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
118.2
DR
106.8
PTS
28.0
C
Peyton Watson
OR
94.7
DR
112.0
PTS
10.8
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
105.2
DR
104.8
PTS
12.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia is a narrow pick at 50%, making this close to a toss-up despite the 76ers’ recent momentum. Cleveland is expected to start Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson. Philadelphia’s starters are Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 230 points, with Philadelphia’s expected margin rounding to zero points. That points to a high-scoring game likely to stay close, rather than a comfortable win for either side.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.9 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Philadelphia 76ers) -0.1 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Philadelphia’s rating has climbed steadily over its last five games, while Cleveland’s has fallen, giving the 76ers stronger momentum.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1501.2 -18.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Oklahoma City Thunder 1501.2 -9.5
2026-11-02 Oklahoma City Thunder 1510.7 -10.7
2026-10-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1521.4 +11.5
2026-10-29 Atlanta Hawks 1509.9 -10.2
2026-10-28 Washington Wizards 1520.1 -

Philadelphia 76ers

1563.7 +36.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Detroit Pistons 1563.7 +11.0
2026-11-02 Chicago Bulls 1552.7 +7.8
2026-10-31 Charlotte Hornets 1544.9 +9.4
2026-10-30 New York Knicks 1535.5 +8.4
2026-10-28 Indiana Pacers 1527.1 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 116 124 -8
Oklahoma City Thunder 112 117 -5
Milwaukee Bucks 136 111 +25
Atlanta Hawks 111 114 -3
Washington Wizards 121 111 +10

Philadelphia 76ers

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 112 106 +6
Chicago Bulls 126 107 +19
Charlotte Hornets 109 104 +5
New York Knicks 98 93 +5
Indiana Pacers 114 109 +5

Game Analysis

The expected starting groups are the clearest separator in Philadelphia’s favor. Cleveland’s home court pulls the other way, and the Cavaliers also have a slight advantage in season ratings, leaving the forecast nearly even. Philadelphia arrives on a three-game winning streak, while Cleveland has lost two straight to Oklahoma City. Maxey’s 28-point average is the highest among the listed starters, and Mobley’s 19-point average gives Cleveland a strong scoring counter.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s scoring inside through Mobley and Allen could flip the forecast if it makes Philadelphia’s frontcourt work hard defensively. The 76ers’ projected advantage in the starting group is slim enough that a quieter-than-usual performance from their perimeter scorers could erase it.

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