New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

New York Knicks

Home Team
66.1%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
33.9%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New York Knicks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 New York Knicks
Starting five +6.8 New York Knicks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 66% for New York Knicks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New York Knicks
PTS 24.2 REB 3.8 AST 4.5 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.0 REB 6.4 AST 4.0 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.9 REB 12.1 AST 3.5 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.0 REB 3.6 AST 1.7 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.0 REB 4.9 AST 2.4 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 21.0 REB 4.4 AST 5.0 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.2 REB 6.7 AST 3.1 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.7 REB 4.4 AST 4.5 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.4 REB 6.5 AST 1.4 3PM 0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.1 REB 4.7 AST 2.1 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.7
DR
112.5
PTS
25.9
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
116.9
DR
114.8
PTS
22.8
SG
Josh Hart
OR
99.9
DR
103.1
PTS
8.6
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
127.5
DR
114.5
PTS
17.5
SF
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.5
DR
101.1
PTS
20.9
VS
James Harden
OR
107.9
DR
116.0
PTS
15.3
PF
Mikal Bridges
OR
94.8
DR
106.7
PTS
6.3
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
123.2
DR
112.9
PTS
13.1
C
OG Anunoby
OR
117.6
DR
108.5
PTS
16.7
VS
Peyton Watson
OR
100.2
DR
113.3
PTS
11.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the New York Knicks, giving them a 66% chance to win. The expected starters are Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby for New York, with Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson for Cleveland. New York has won three straight, including its most recent meeting with the Cavaliers.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 217 points, suggesting a relatively controlled scoring game. New York is projected to win by five, a modest margin that points to a close contest rather than a comfortable finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 217.0 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Cleveland Cavaliers) 5.1 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New York’s rating has risen over the last five games, while Cleveland’s has fallen, leaving the Knicks with the stronger recent momentum.

New York Knicks

1522.8 +39.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-10 Milwaukee Bucks 1522.8 +8.6
2026-11-07 Cleveland Cavaliers 1514.2 +11.7
2026-11-04 Chicago Bulls 1502.5 +10.2
2026-11-02 Brooklyn Nets 1492.3 +9.4
2026-10-30 Philadelphia 76ers 1482.9 -

Cleveland Cavaliers

1491.1 -19.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Charlotte Hornets 1491.1 -11.9
2026-11-07 New York Knicks 1503.0 -11.7
2026-11-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1514.7 +13.5
2026-11-04 Oklahoma City Thunder 1501.2 -9.5
2026-11-02 Oklahoma City Thunder 1510.7 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

New York Knicks

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 117 85 +32
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 97 +12
Chicago Bulls 135 105 +30
Brooklyn Nets 103 90 +13
Philadelphia 76ers 93 98 -5

Cleveland Cavaliers

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Charlotte Hornets 112 124 -12
New York Knicks 97 109 -12
Philadelphia 76ers 119 95 +24
Oklahoma City Thunder 116 124 -8
Oklahoma City Thunder 112 117 -5

Game Analysis

Home court is a major part of New York’s advantage, and the projected starting groups also favor the Knicks. Brunson’s average of 26 points gives them a strong scoring option, while their three-game winning streak includes a 12-point win over Cleveland. The Cavaliers have lost two straight, but their frontcourt gives them a clear route to challenge the forecast. Mobley is averaging 18 points, and his scoring alongside Allen’s could test New York inside and keep Cleveland close.

Final Prediction

If Mobley and Allen turn their frontcourt presence into steady scoring, Cleveland can make the Knicks’ home-court advantage matter less. That interior production is the clearest path to an upset.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel