Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Adam Walton

Rank: #77
25%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
75%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Adam Walton

  • Current #77 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #97 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #86 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #90 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #102 2024-10-14

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #18 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #9 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #5 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #5 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Adam Walton

Form Index: 32.1
ELO Rating: 777.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 145.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.6

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 62.3
ELO Rating: 2986.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2072.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Adam Walton
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Daniil Medvedev
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Adam Walton
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Round of 16 match in Almaty, Kazakhstan, features Adam Walton facing off against Daniil Medvedev on hard courts in an ATP 250 tournament. The predicted winner is Daniil Medvedev, with a probability of 75.16% to win against Adam Walton's 24.84%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Adam Walton, currently ranked 77, has a form index of 32.09 and an Elo rating of 777.12. His cumulative fatigue stands at 145 minutes, which may impact his performance. Walton's surface strength index of 7.32 indicates limited effectiveness on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 97.13 and mean return index of 86.61 suggest a relatively strong serve but a weaker return game. Notably, the difference in mean serve index between Walton and Medvedev exceeds 5 points, providing an edge to Walton in that aspect. In contrast, Daniil Medvedev, ranked 18, boasts a much higher form index of 62.31 and an impressive Elo rating of 2986.29. He arrives at this match with zero cumulative fatigue, which means he is fresh and ready to compete. Medvedev's surface strength index of 29.04 and mean serve index of 95.24 are complemented by a mean return index of 87.74, showcasing his strong all-around game. Over his last three matches, Medvedev has shown resilience, with a victory against Alex de Minaur and a solid performance against Learner Tien, despite a recent loss to Arthur Rinderknech.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's superior ranking, higher form index, and lack of fatigue give him a significant advantage over Adam Walton. The key factor to watch will be Medvedev's return game, as he will likely exploit Walton's vulnerabilities on return, which could prove decisive in determining the match outcome.

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