Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Ben Shelton Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
40%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
60%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #26 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #29 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #66 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #62 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #43 (2024-07-22)

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 64.8
ELO Rating: 1500.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 341.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.5
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.1

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 75.4
ELO Rating: 1673.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1725.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.6
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.1

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Washington 184 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Washington 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Washington 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs James Duckworth (0-2) hard Los Cabos 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Washington 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) hard Washington 61 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Washington 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
0
Ben Shelton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the ATP 500 tournament in Washington, D.C., Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces off against Ben Shelton on hard courts. The predicted winner is Ben Shelton, with a probability of 59.90% to Davidovich Fokina's 40.10%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 24 games.

Match Analysis

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, currently ranked 26, has a form index of 64.82 and an Elo rating of 1500.32. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament stands at 341 minutes, suggesting he has spent considerable time on court. His surface strength index is 11.45, while his mean serve index of 96.09 is competitive, though slightly lower than Shelton's. Ben Shelton, ranked 8, boasts a higher form index of 75.38 and an Elo rating of 1673.59, indicating his superior performance level. With only 253 minutes of cumulative fatigue, he is fresher, and his surface strength index is 13.58. Notably, Shelton has a mean serve index of 96.53, which gives him a slight advantage, but their mean return indices are close, with only a 3.00-point difference favoring Davidovich Fokina. In their recent performances, both players have shown strong form. Davidovich Fokina has won all three of his last matches, defeating Taylor Fritz, Learner Tien, and Jaume Munar, with a longer match against Fritz lasting 184 minutes. In comparison, Shelton has also won his last three matches, including a key victory over Frances Tiafoe, and has maintained a dominant streak, not dropping a set in those encounters.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's combination of a higher rank, better form index, and lower fatigue levels gives him a significant edge in this semifinal match. A key factor to watch will be Shelton's serving effectiveness, as his slight advantage in the mean serve index could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this contest.