Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #20
60%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #43
40%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 1351.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1694.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 21.5
ELO Rating: 769.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.8
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (1-1) hard Cincinnati 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) hard Toronto 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (2-0) hard Toronto 76 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Hangzhou 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Cincinnati 63 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Kei Nishikori (2-0) hard Cincinnati 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Roberto Carballes Baena (0-2) hard Toronto 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 32 match at the Beijing tournament promises an exciting encounter as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Camilo Ugo Carabelli on hard courts. With Alejandro ranked 20th and a solid prediction of a 60.21% chance of winning compared to Carabelli's 39.79%, the anticipated total games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina boasts a higher rank and form index, sitting at 20th with a form index of 47.31 and an Elo rating of 1351.16. His surface strength index of 10.44 and a mean serve index of 96.04 suggest he performs well on hard courts. Notably, his mean return index of 87.23 is also impressive, indicating a strong capability to counter his opponent's serves. In contrast, Camilo Ugo Carabelli, ranked 43rd, has a lower form index of 21.54 and an Elo rating of 769.82. His surface strength index stands at 5.83, and while his mean serve index is close at 95.00, he has a slightly higher mean return index of 88.80. The significant difference in their mean serve indices of over 5 points could play a pivotal role in the match dynamics. In their recent performances, Davidovich Fokina has shown mixed results, winning one out of his last three matches while battling through tough encounters, including a loss to Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open. On the other hand, Carabelli has struggled, losing all three of his last matches, including a disappointing performance against Rinky Hijikata in Hangzhou where he did not win a set. This trend indicates a potential advantage for Davidovich Fokina heading into their match.

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina's higher ranking, superior form, and strong serve will likely give him the upper hand against Carabelli. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Davidovich can leverage his serve against Carabelli's returning capabilities, particularly given the significant difference in their serving statistics.