Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #20
50%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #73
50%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #20 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #27 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #40 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #61 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #64 (2024-09-30)

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #73 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #39 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #36 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 43.7
ELO Rating: 1352.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.4

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 42.7
ELO Rating: 1097.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 111.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Beijing 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Beijing 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (1-1) hard Cincinnati 98 min

Matteo Arnaldi
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) hard Shanghai 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Tokio 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (1-1) hard Tokio 137 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (1-2) hard Hangzhou 171 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Winston Salem 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
2
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
1 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Arnaldi in the Round of 64 at the 2025 Shanghai Masters promises to be an intriguing contest on hard court. With both players having nearly equal probabilities of winning—49.95% for Davidovich Fokina and 50.05% for Arnaldi—the predicted total number of games played stands at 23.0, indicating a competitive showdown.

Match Analysis

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, currently ranked 20, has demonstrated a solid form index of 43.75, alongside an Elo rating of 1352.76. He enters this match with no accumulated fatigue, which could play a significant role in his stamina during the match. His surface strength index is 10.46, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.04 and a mean return index of 87.41. In contrast, Matteo Arnaldi, ranked 73, has a slightly lower form index of 42.72 and an Elo rating of 1097.06. However, he carries a cumulative fatigue of 111 minutes from previous matches. Arnaldi’s surface strength index is marginally higher at 10.49, with a mean serve index of 95.42 and a mean return index of 87.41, showcasing a close contest in serving and returning capabilities. In their recent performances, Davidovich Fokina has had mixed results, with a win against Camilo Ugo Carabelli but losses against Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech. Arnaldi, on the other hand, comes off a confident win against Rei Sakamoto but has faced a loss to Marton Fucsovics in Tokyo. His victory against Luca Nardi in a preceding match indicates that he has the potential to compete at a high level, despite his earlier struggles.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi is predicted to edge out Alejandro Davidovich Fokina primarily due to his recent victory momentum and slightly better surface strength index. A critical factor to observe during this match will be Arnaldi's ability to leverage his recent performance to counteract Davidovich Fokina’s more established ranking and experience.