Adelaide Australia Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Aleksandar Vukic vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #87
38%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #20
62%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Current Rank: #87 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #85 (2025-10-13)
  • 6 Months Ago: #90 (2025-07-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #84 (2025-04-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #68 (2025-01-13)

Tommy Paul

  • Current Rank: #20 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #18 (2025-10-13)
  • 6 Months Ago: #16 (2025-07-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #12 (2025-04-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #11 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 75.5
ELO Rating: 785.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 476
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.3
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 17.2
Serve Rating: 69.5
Return Rating: 49.0

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 1954.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1811.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 71
Surface Strength:
Hard: 63.3
Clay: 53.0
Grass: 47.0
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 93.4

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Vukic
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Vavassori (2-0) hard Adelaide 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) hard Adelaide 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-1) hard Adelaide 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-1) hard Adelaide 125 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Brisbane 60 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Brisbane 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-2) hard Cincinnati 159 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Vukic
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match between Aleksandar Vukic and Tommy Paul at the Adelaide tournament promises to be a compelling encounter on a hard surface. With Tommy Paul being the favored player, he holds a 61.88% probability of winning compared to Vukic's 38.12%. The anticipated total number of games played is set at 24.0.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul, currently ranked 20, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 1954.21 compared to Vukic's 785.52. Paul’s form index of 60.81 indicates solid recent performances, although it is lower than Vukic's impressive 75.45. Notably, Paul’s surface strength index of 63.34 showcases his superior adaptability on hard courts. Fatigue levels are also a factor; Vukic has accumulated 476 minutes on court, suggesting he might be more fatigued compared to Paul, who has only 71 minutes of cumulative fatigue in the tournament. When examining their recent performances, Vukic has shown remarkable form, winning all his last three matches convincingly, including victories over high-ranked players like Stefanos Tsitsipas. In contrast, Tommy Paul has had mixed results, winning his last match against Reilly Opelka but suffering a defeat in Brisbane against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Despite this, Paul's overall consistency and ability to perform against top opposition remain formidable.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul's edge lies in his higher ranking, better serve and return indices, and significantly lower fatigue levels. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Paul's serve, as he possesses a mean serve index nearly 27 points higher than Vukic’s, indicating his potential to dominate service games in this matchup.