Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Luca Nardi vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Luca Nardi

Rank: #95
19%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #8
81%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Luca Nardi

  • Current Rank: #95 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #77 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #102 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #95 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #81 (2024-05-06)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #8 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #7 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #11 (2024-05-06)

Player Metrics

Luca Nardi

Form Index: 38.4
ELO Rating: 730.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 88.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.4

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 56.4
ELO Rating: 3142.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1792.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 30.9
Grass: 31.0
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Luca Nardi
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) clay Rome 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Gaston (0-2) clay Madrid 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Manas Dhamne (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) clay Bucharest 67 min

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) clay Barcelona 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) clay Barcelona 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 158 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luca Nardi
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2025 Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Alex de Minaur is favored to triumph over Luca Nardi on the clay surface. With a projected probability of winning at 80.85%, de Minaur's superior form and experience are expected to prevail against Nardi, who has a win probability of 19.15%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 21.0.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur is currently ranked 8th, showcasing significant prowess with a form index of 56.4 and an impressive Elo rating of 3142.2. His fatigue level stands at 0.0, indicating he comes into this match fresh. De Minaur also boasts a strong surface strength index of 30.9, highlighting his effectiveness on clay. In contrast, Luca Nardi, ranked 95th, has a form index of 38.4 and an Elo rating of 730.4. Nardi’s fatigue level is notably high at 88.0 minutes, which may hinder his performance. Additionally, the difference in their mean serve index is minimal (1.7 points), but Nardi does have a slightly lower mean return index compared to De Minaur (87.4 vs. 88.5), which may impact his ability to counter De Minaur's serves effectively. Examining their recent performances, De Minaur has won his last two matches convincingly, defeating Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Sonego without dropping a set. Nardi, on the other hand, has experienced mixed results, winning against Flavio Cobolli but losing to Hugo Gaston in his previous outing, illustrating inconsistency in his game. Overall, De Minaur’s recent form is stronger, and his clay-court experience could prove pivotal.

Final Prediction

De Minaur's combination of a higher ranking, superior form, and lack of fatigue gives him a distinct advantage over Nardi. A key factor to monitor will be De Minaur's ability to maintain pressure on Nardi's serve, as his returns could dictate the pace and flow of the match.