Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 128

Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #11
74%
VS

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #74
26%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #11 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #10 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #9 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #11 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #9 2024-07-01

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current #74 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #51 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #57 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #54 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #64 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 2798.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1780.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 27.0
Grass: 28.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.4

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 29.8
ELO Rating: 944.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) grass London 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Rome 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) clay Rome 117 min

Roberto Carballes Baena
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Roberto Carballes Baena
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at Wimbledon 2025, Alex de Minaur is set to face Roberto Carballes Baena on the grass courts of Great Britain. With a predicted win probability of 73.84% for de Minaur compared to 26.16% for Carballes Baena, the match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 35 games played.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur currently holds a rank of 11 and boasts a strong form index of 37.15, indicating a solid performance level. His Elo rating of 2798.15 further supports his competitive edge. De Minaur has a surface strength index of 28.34, which is significantly higher than Carballes Baena's 8.45, showcasing his better adaptation to grass courts. Additionally, de Minaur's mean serve index of 95.96 surpasses Carballes Baena's 94.98 by just under 1 point, while his mean return index of 88.36 is notably higher than Carballes Baena's 87.59, although not by the 5-point threshold that typically signifies a significant advantage. In their recent performances, de Minaur has struggled in his last two matches, losing to Jiri Lehecka and Alexander Bublik, but he did secure a win against Laslo Djere prior to that. On the other hand, Carballes Baena has faced a tough stretch, losing his last three matches, including a recent defeat to Sebastian Ofner. His lack of wins and lower form index of 29.80 suggest he is currently not in optimal condition for this match-up.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's superior ranking, stronger surface adaptability, and slightly better performance metrics provide him with a clear edge heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be de Minaur's serving efficiency, as his ability to capitalize on serve opportunities could significantly influence the match's outcome.

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