Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fery Prediction

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #2
87%
VS

Arthur Fery

Rank: #35
13%
Expected Total Games: 22.2
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Why the Model Favors Alexander Zverev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +11.2 Alexander Zverev
Overall strength +10.0 Alexander Zverev
Surface fit +7.6 Alexander Zverev
Serve & return game +5.2 Alexander Zverev
Overall record & opposition quality +4.7 Alexander Zverev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 87% for Alexander Zverev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #2 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #3 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #3 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-10-27

Arthur Fery

  • Current #35 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #161 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #186 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #196 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 57.8
ELO Rating: 2120.4
Glicko2 Rating: 2073.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 280.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 59.1
Clay: 57.1
Grass: 48.7
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.8

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 1774.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1775.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 190.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.4
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Arthur Fery
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Arthur Fery
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Zverev is strongly favored in the Quarterfinals, with an 87% win probability to Fery’s 13%. The expected total is 22.2 games.

Match Analysis

The gap in overall strength is substantial: Zverev is ranked second, while Fery is 35th. Zverev has also won both of his matches in Vienna, including a straight-sets win over Tallon Griekspoor. Fery’s three-set victory over Lorenzo Musetti is a notable result, but Zverev has been the more consistent winner at this event. Hard-court suitability is another separator. Zverev has the stronger record profile on the surface, and his serve and return both rate ahead of Fery’s. The return gap is narrower than the serving gap, so Fery may still have opportunities to make rallies competitive, but Zverev has more ways to control them.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.2 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Zverev - Arthur Fery) +3.8 Most likely spread: +4 (Alexander Zverev wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Zverev is projected for 8.6 aces and Fery for 3.5, reflecting Zverev’s stronger serving profile. The forecast is 1.7 double faults for Zverev and 1.6 for Fery, with little separation expected in that area.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Alexander Zverev 8.6 + Arthur Fery 3.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.3 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Alexander Zverev 1.7 + Arthur Fery 1.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 8.6 aces

Arthur Fery

Expected 3.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 1.7 double faults

Arthur Fery

Expected 1.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Zverev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (61.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fery’s best chance is to make his return game count: his return profile is relatively close to Zverev’s, and sustained pressure there could narrow the gap. If Zverev gets more from his serve, the forecast points strongly his way.

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