Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #13
26%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
74%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #13 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #21 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #13 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #15 2024-05-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #3 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 68.0
ELO Rating: 1801.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1711.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 17.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 84.1

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 87.0
ELO Rating: 6533.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2359.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 59.7
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz at Roland Garros promises to be an exciting clash in the Round of 16. Set on clay, a surface that tends to favor baseline rallies, Alcaraz is the predicted winner with a probability of 74.28%, while Shelton stands at 25.72%. The expected total number of games played is 36.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, ranked 3rd, boasts a robust form index of 87.02 and an impressive Elo rating of 6533.2. His surface strength index of 59.66 indicates a strong performance on clay, complemented by a mean return index of 87.84. His cumulative fatigue is relatively high at 522 minutes, but his recent match performances have shown resilience, winning all three matches convincingly, including a 3-1 set victory in his last match against Damir Dzumhur. On the other hand, Ben Shelton, ranked 13th, has a form index of 67.95 and an Elo rating of 1801.75. While his surface strength index of 15.59 is considerably lower than Alcaraz's, his mean serve index of 98.11 gives him a potent weapon. However, his mean return index at 84.12 suggests a slight disadvantage in countering Alcaraz's strong return game. Recently, Shelton has shown promise, winning two consecutive matches at Roland Garros, but he faced a setback in his prior outing in Rome against Jaume Munar.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and performance metrics indicate he holds the edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how Shelton's serve holds up against Alcaraz's formidable return game, which may significantly influence the match's outcome.

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