Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Cameron Norrie vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #31
55%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
45%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 1345.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1701.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 11.3
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 87.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 19.3
ELO Rating: 918.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.6
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie

  • Last Match: vs Matteo Berrettini (1-2) hard Vienna 196 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Vienna 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Shanghai 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Beijing 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Yi Zhou (1-2) hard Chengdu 164 min

Sebastian Baez

  • Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Basel 72 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (0-2) hard Brussels 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Paris Masters 1000 tournament, Cameron Norrie is set to face Sebastian Baez on hard courts. The match is expected to be competitive, with Norrie predicted to win with a probability of 55.14%, while Baez has a 44.86% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie, currently ranked 31, holds a form index of 32.64 and an Elo rating of 1345.65, indicating a solid performance level. His surface strength index stands at 10.40, which suggests he has a decent capability on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.79 and a mean return index of 87.91. In contrast, Sebastian Baez, ranked 43, has a lower form index of 19.34 and an Elo rating of 918.66. His surface strength index is slightly lower at 8.23, with a mean serve index of 95.07 and a mean return index of 89.59. Notably, Norrie's serve index exceeds Baez's by more than 5 points, which could be critical in a tightly contested match. In their recent performances, Norrie's last three matches included a win against Andrey Rublev, contrasting with losses to Matteo Berrettini and Learner Tien. This showcases that while he has the ability to compete at a high level, inconsistency has been an issue. On the other hand, Baez has struggled significantly, losing all of his last three matches, including defeats to Reilly Opelka, Valentin Royer, and Holger Rune, without winning a set. This recent form suggests that Baez may be facing challenges in his game that could hinder his performance.

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie's slight edge in ranking, stronger serve, and more favorable recent performance position him as the predicted winner against Sebastian Baez. A key factor to watch will be Norrie's ability to capitalize on his service game, which could be decisive in determining the outcome of the match.