Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz, ranked 2nd in the world, boasts a strong form index of 73.79 and an impressive Elo rating of 6661.20, indicating his current high performance level. He also has a lower cumulative fatigue of 276 minutes from the tournament, suggesting he is in better physical condition than Rublev. In contrast, Rublev, ranked 11th, has a form index of 58.93 and an Elo rating of 1963.96. His cumulative fatigue stands at 377 minutes, which may impact his performance. The surface strength index further highlights the gap, with Alcaraz at 54.58 versus Rublev's 15.66. The difference in their mean serve index is marginal, with Rublev at 97.80 and Alcaraz at 94.46; however, their mean return indices are closely matched, with Rublev at 87.44 and Alcaraz at 87.39, indicating both players are effective in returning serves. In their last three matches, Alcaraz has been dominant, winning all three without dropping a set, including a recent victory against Luca Nardi. Rublev has also shown strong form, winning his last three matches, but he faced a more extended battle against Alexei Popyrin, which could leave him with residual fatigue entering this match.