London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
77%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #80
23%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-06-17)

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current Rank: #80 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #74 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #59 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #57 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #66 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 84.8
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2362.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 305.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.6

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 48.2
ELO Rating: 932.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 455.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) grass London 203 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) grass London 102 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Arthur Rinderknech
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) grass London 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) grass London 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) grass London 151 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Johannus Monday (2-0) grass London 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) grass Stuttgart 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match between Carlos Alcaraz and Arthur Rinderknech at the ATP 500 event in London promises to be an intriguing contest on grass. Alcaraz, currently ranked 2nd in the world, is heavily favored to win, boasting a 77% probability of success compared to Rinderknech's 23%. The predicted total number of games played is 22.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz enters this match with a form index of 84.78 and an Elo rating of 6661.20, indicating a high level of performance. He has accumulated 305 minutes of fatigue from the tournament, but his surface strength index of 58.82 suggests he adapts well to grass conditions. Alcaraz's mean serve index of 96.17 and mean return index of 87.61 are significantly higher than Rinderknech’s, which stands at 96.56 and 85.64, respectively—though the difference in serve index is marginally above 5 points. This could be pivotal as a stronger serve typically translates to better game control. On the other hand, Arthur Rinderknech ranks 80th and has a lower form index of 48.21, paired with an Elo rating of 932.08. He has experienced 455 minutes of fatigue, indicating that he may be feeling the physical toll of the tournament. In terms of recent performances, Rinderknech has won his last two matches in London, while Alcaraz has also been successful in his recent outings. However, Alcaraz's victory against Jaume Munar in a more extended match demonstrates his endurance and ability to handle pressure.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and performance metrics give him a distinct advantage over Arthur Rinderknech. The key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's service game; if he can maintain his high serve index, he is likely to dominate the match and control the pace effectively.