Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
81%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #31
19%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #1 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-10-28)

Cameron Norrie

  • Current Rank: #31 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #39 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #91 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #63 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #56 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 78.5
ELO Rating: 6918.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2365.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.1

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 34.7
ELO Rating: 1345.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1701.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.4
Clay: 11.3
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Tokio 93 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Tokio 128 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Tokio 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Tokio 90 min

Cameron Norrie
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (1-2) hard Vienna 196 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Vienna 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Shanghai 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Beijing 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yi Zhou (1-2) hard Chengdu 164 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 of the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked number one in the world, is set to face Cameron Norrie, who holds the 31st position. The match will be played on hard courts, and Alcaraz has a strong predicted win probability of 80.87%, while Norrie's chances stand at 19.13%. The predicted total number of games played is set at 21.0.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz boasts an impressive form index of 78.53, significantly higher than Norrie's 34.67, indicating superior recent performance. His Elo rating of 6918.31 far exceeds Norrie's 1345.66, showcasing a stark contrast in skill levels. Additionally, Alcaraz has a surface strength index of 56.96 compared to Norrie's 10.40, revealing his stronger adaptability to hard courts. The mean serve index difference of just 0.29 suggests that both players have comparable serving capabilities; however, Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.10 highlights his superior return game compared to Norrie's 87.85, indicating he may capitalize on Norrie's serves more effectively. In terms of recent performances, Alcaraz has had a flawless run in his last three matches, winning all of them without dropping a set, including a convincing victory against Taylor Fritz in his last outing. On the other hand, Cameron Norrie's recent form has been inconsistent, winning only one out of his last three matches, with a notable loss to Matteo Berrettini in his latest encounter. This disparity in form and results adds to Alcaraz's favorable position heading into this match.

Final Prediction

The predicted edge for Carlos Alcaraz stems from his superior ranking, solid form, and exceptional performance on hard courts. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to exploit Norrie's serve, particularly given his high return index, which could play a pivotal role in determining the match outcome.