Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
76%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #29
24%
Expected Total Games: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2026-03-02
  • 3 mo ago #1 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #2 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-03-03

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #29 2026-03-02
  • 3 mo ago #27 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #35 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #81 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 62.7
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2212.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 294.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 56.0
Return Rating: 54.4

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 55.8
ELO Rating: 1320.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 256.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.8
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Cameron Norrie
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Indian Wells 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) hard Indian Wells 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Indian Wells 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) hard Acapulco 55 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Christopher O'Connell (0-2) hard Rotterdam 117 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
1
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, the Masters 1000 quarterfinal between world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 29 Cameron Norrie will be played on hard courts — a medium-paced surface with a consistent bounce in this event. The model favors Carlos Alcaraz to win (76.25% probability) over Cameron Norrie (23.75%), with a predicted total of about 20.98 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz arrives with the top ranking, a strong form index of 62.75 and an Elo of 12,050. He carries 294 minutes of tournament court time and posts a surface strength index of 100, underlining his comfort on hard courts. Norrie, ranked 29, has a form index of 55.83 and an Elo of 1,320.61, with 256 minutes of play so far and a markedly lower surface strength index of 10.82. Serve/return profiles show clear contrasts: Norrie’s mean serve index (97.66) is substantially higher than Alcaraz’s (55.96), and his mean return index (90.16) also exceeds Alcaraz’s (54.36) — both differences well over five points and notable for match dynamics. Both players are battle-tested this week: Alcaraz has three wins at Indian Wells, including a straight-sets victory over Casper Ruud and a longer 138-minute match against Arthur Rinderknech; his matches display both dominance and a longer tussle. Norrie is also 3-0 at the event, all straight-set wins (including victories over Alex de Minaur and Rinky Hijikata), suggesting efficient, controlled baseline play and strong serving spells.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.0 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Cameron Norrie) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Cameron Norrie wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest sits at an expected total of 10.57, while the predicted double faults total is about 4.47. On hard courts — which tend to produce a moderate number of aces compared to grass (fewer) or clay (more) — the expected aces figure reflects Norrie’s elite serve index; his big-serve profile should lift the predicted aces. The expected double faults number is modest, though Norrie’s aggressive serving style could concentrate those errors when under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alcaraz’s overwhelming Elo, top ranking and perfect surface strength give him the edge despite heavier minutes on court. The key factor to watch is Norrie’s serve: if his high serve index translates into free points, it could tighten the scoreline; otherwise Alcaraz’s all-court game should carry him through.

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