Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Damir Dzumhur vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #54
8%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
92%
Expected Total Games: 20.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current #54 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #69 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #89 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #104 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #100 2024-08-12

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #2 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 43.7
ELO Rating: 849.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 143.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 89.7

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 94.2
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2357.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Damir Dzumhur
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Damir Dzumhur and Carlos Alcaraz is set to take place in the Round of 64 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000, a hard court tournament in Ohio, USA. Carlos Alcaraz is heavily favored to win, with a probability of 92.16% against Dzumhur’s 7.84%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is estimated at 20.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 2nd in the world, boasts an impressive form index of 94.18 and an Elo rating of 6661.20, indicating his strong performance and consistency. In contrast, Damir Dzumhur, ranked 54th, has a form index of 43.72 and an Elo rating of 849.51, reflecting a significant gap in current form and competitive ability. Moreover, Dzumhur has accumulated 143 minutes of fatigue from his recent matches, while Alcaraz enters this matchup with no recorded fatigue, enhancing his readiness for the contest. When it comes to serving and returning, Alcaraz’s mean serve index is 94.49, while Dzumhur's is slightly higher at 95.97, indicating a marginal advantage for Dzumhur in serving. However, Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.34 is comparable to Dzumhur's 89.67, suggesting both players can effectively handle serves. Dzumhur's recent performance shows a mixed bag; he won his last match but lost the two prior. Alcaraz, on the other hand, faced a tough time at Wimbledon, losing his last match but won the two before that.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz’s superior ranking, form, and lack of fatigue provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match. Dzumhur's recent inconsistency, coupled with the high-pressure environment of a Masters 1000 event, will challenge his performance. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to handle Dzumhur's serve, as any slip in returning could offer Dzumhur opportunities to compete.

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