Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Finals

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
54%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
46%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 69.3
ELO Rating: 11830.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2155.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 495.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 88.8

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 65.3
ELO Rating: 6405.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2356.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 553.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.3
Clay: 61.5
Grass: 62.0
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (2-1) clay Rome 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (1-0) clay Rome 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) clay Rome 137 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Rome 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (2-0) clay Rome 98 min

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) clay Rome 123 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (2-0) clay Rome 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) clay Rome 148 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (2-0) clay Rome 103 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Dusan Lajovic (2-0) clay Rome 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
3
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Jannik Sinner faces off against Carlos Alcaraz on clay, a surface both players have shown proficiency on. The predicted winner is Jannik Sinner, who has a 53.86% chance of winning compared to Alcaraz's 46.14%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is approximately 21.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner enters this match ranked 1st with an impressive form index of 69.31 and an Elo rating of 11830. His surface strength index stands at a perfect 100, showcasing his dominance on clay. With a mean serve index of 98.18, he holds a slight advantage over Alcaraz, whose mean serve index is 95.12. On the other hand, Alcaraz's form index of 65.34 and Elo rating of 6405 reflect a strong performance, though he has accumulated more fatigue at 553 minutes compared to Sinner's 495 minutes. Additionally, both players have similar mean return indices, with Sinner at 88.84 and Alcaraz at 88.16, indicating an evenly matched return game. In their recent performances, Sinner has showcased his capabilities by winning all three of his last matches, including a solid victory against Tommy Paul in the semi-finals. His previous matches were also swift, demonstrating his ability to maintain a high level of play with minimal fatigue. Conversely, Alcaraz has also been impressive, winning his last three matches without dropping a set, including a notable win against Lorenzo Musetti. However, the additional time spent on the court may affect his stamina heading into this crucial final.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's edge in surface strength and slightly superior serve index, combined with less accumulated fatigue, positions him favorably in this match. A key factor to watch will be Sinner's ability to maintain his powerful serves while managing his energy levels, particularly as the match progresses on the demanding clay surface.