London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Finals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
68%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #30
32%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-06-17)

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current Rank: #30 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #27 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #36 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #25 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2362.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 474.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.7

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 71.2
ELO Rating: 2074.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1701.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 344.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 15.3
Grass: 18.2
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass London 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) grass London 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) grass London 203 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) grass London 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jack Draper (2-1) grass London 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) grass London 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) grass London 64 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) grass London 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) grass Stuttgart 60 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
1
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The finals of the ATP 500 tournament in London sees Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked 2nd in the world, facing off against 30th-ranked Jiri Lehecka on grass. With a probability of winning set at 68.36% for Alcaraz and 31.64% for Lehecka, the predicted total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz brings a form index of 79.18 and an Elo rating of 6661.20 into this match. His cumulative fatigue stands at 474 minutes, but his Surface Strength Index of 58.82 indicates a strong capability on grass courts. Alcaraz's mean serve index is significantly high at 96.26, compared to Lehecka's 96.21, showing they are closely matched in serving ability. However, Alcaraz's mean return index of 87.68 surpasses Lehecka's 84.82 by a margin greater than 5 points, suggesting he has a superior returning game, which could be crucial in breaking Lehecka's serve. Jiri Lehecka, ranked 30th, has a form index of 71.24 and an Elo rating of 2074.33. His fatigue level is lower at 344 minutes, but his Surface Strength Index of 18.23 indicates he is less effective on grass compared to Alcaraz. In their recent performances, both players have shown solid form, with Alcaraz winning all three of his matches convincingly, including a dominant win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the semifinals. Lehecka also secured three straight wins, but his matches have been more contested, with at least one set lost in each.

Final Prediction

Alcaraz's higher rank, superior return game, and recent form give him a significant edge going into the final. One key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Alcaraz's returning ability against Lehecka's serve, as it could dictate the flow of the match and determine the outcome.