Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Luciano Darderi vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #34
16%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
84%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #34 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #44 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #37 2024-08-26

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #2 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 75.9
ELO Rating: 1218.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 86.0

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 83.2
ELO Rating: 6790.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2361.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.8
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Luciano Darderi and Carlos Alcaraz at the 2025 US Open in New York promises to be an intriguing contest in the Round of 32 on hard courts. Alcaraz, ranked second in the world, holds a significant advantage with an 84.46% probability of winning, compared to Darderi's 15.54%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is estimated at 35.

Match Analysis

Luciano Darderi currently sits at rank 34 with a form index of 75.94 and an Elo rating of 1218.23. Despite showing resilience, he has faced cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes during the tournament. His surface strength index is relatively low at 7.96, indicating challenges on hard courts. Darderi's mean serve index is at 96.75, while his mean return index is 85.99, showcasing a competitive serve but a less effective return game when compared to Alcaraz. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, boasts an impressive rank of 2, an exceptional form index of 83.19, and a striking Elo rating of 6790.31, all indicative of his top-tier status in the tournament. Alcaraz's fatigue level matches Darderi's at 348 minutes, but his surface strength index is significantly higher at 55.84. His mean serve index stands at 94.23, while his mean return index is 86.97. The slight difference in their serve indices (over 5 points) suggests that Darderi might have a stronger serve, but Alcaraz's overall return game is superior, providing him with better scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's higher ranking, superior form, and overall performance metrics give him a distinct edge over Luciano Darderi in this match. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's return game, as his ability to capitalize on Darderi's serves could significantly influence the match's outcome.

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