London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
77%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #51
23%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #2 (2024-06-17)

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current Rank: #51 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #50 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #51 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #62 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #83 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 81.6
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2362.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 385.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.7

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 52.2
ELO Rating: 1297.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 287.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 9.7
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) grass London 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) grass London 203 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) grass London 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Roberto Bautista Agut
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (2-1) grass London 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-1) grass London 141 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Hamburg 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the semifinals of the ATP 500 tournament in London, Carlos Alcaraz faces Roberto Bautista Agut on grass. With Alcaraz ranked 2nd and boasting a significant edge in form and statistics, he is predicted to win with a probability of 76.78%, while Bautista Agut stands at 23.22%. The match is expected to feature around 21 games.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz's current form index of 81.59 and an Elo rating of 6661.20 demonstrate his excellent performance level. His cumulative fatigue stands at 385 minutes, which is relatively manageable given his recent matches. Alcaraz's surface strength index on grass is 58.82, coupled with a mean serve index of 96.21 and a mean return index of 87.67, showcasing his strong serving and returning capabilities. The difference in mean serve index between Alcaraz and Bautista Agut is marginal, but Alcaraz's return index surpasses Bautista Agut's by over 5 points, indicating a significant advantage in returning opponents' serves. Roberto Bautista Agut, ranked 51st, has a form index of 52.23 and an Elo rating of 1297.80, reflecting a less formidable status compared to Alcaraz. His fatigue level is lower at 287 minutes, yet this does not outweigh his surface strength index of only 10.72. Bautista Agut has shown resilience in his recent matches, winning his last two encounters, but he faces challenges against top-tier opponents. In his last three games, he has a win-loss record of 2-1, with his most recent match lasting 146 minutes.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz holds a significant advantage in terms of ranking, form, and surface performance, making him the likely winner in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be Alcaraz's return game, as his superior return index could prove pivotal in dictating the tempo and outcome of the match.