Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
79%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #41
21%
Expected Total Games: 20.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #3 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #3 2024-09-23

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #41 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #25 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 95.8
ELO Rating: 6918.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2364.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.8
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 23.4
ELO Rating: 940.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.6
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lloyd Harris (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-1) hard Winston Salem 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Winston Salem 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (0-2) hard Cincinnati 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) hard Cincinnati 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo is set to be an intriguing clash on hard court. Alcaraz, currently ranked first, holds a significant edge with a predicted win probability of 79.48%, while Baez comes in at 20.52%. The anticipated total number of games played is around 20.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz's impressive form index of 95.81 and Elo rating of 6918 indicate his exceptional performance levels. He has shown remarkable consistency recently, winning all of his last three matches at the US Open without dropping a set, showcasing his dominance on hard courts. His surface strength index of 56.96, mean serve index of 95.51, and mean return index of 86.86 highlight his overall capabilities, particularly in serving and returning. Notably, there is a substantial difference of over 5 points in both the mean serve and mean return indices compared to Baez. On the other hand, Sebastian Baez, ranked 41st, has struggled recently, reflected in his low form index of 23.35 and Elo rating of 940.67. His last three matches include a disappointing performance at the US Open, where he lost all sets against Lloyd Harris. Although he secured a win against Pablo Carreno Busta in Winston-Salem, his overall inconsistency and lower surface strength index of 8.52 suggest he may find it difficult to compete effectively against Alcaraz.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's superior ranking, form, and statistical advantages provide him with a clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to observe will be Alcaraz's ability to maintain his high level of play and capitalize on his serve and return strengths against Baez, who will need to find a way to elevate his game significantly to challenge the world number one.

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