Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper the matchup leans clearly toward Ruud: he carries a top-25 ranking and an Elo around 1929, compared with Collignon at No. 68 and an Elo near 1621. Ruud’s surface strength index on clay (45.8) is markedly higher than Collignon’s (10.9), and that clay pedigree narrows the gap in tactical exchanges that matter most on slow courts. Both players arrive with similar tournament fatigue (Collignon 89 minutes, Ruud 91 minutes), so endurance will be tested but neither looks notably fresher. Where Collignon can complicate things is with his return profile—his mean return index (92.6) sits well above Ruud’s (83.6), a difference likely to produce more breaks and tighter service games. Serve numbers are comparable (mean serve indices roughly 95.8 vs 94.9), so there’s no clear serving dominance to tilt short points decisively. Recent form shows Collignon has won two of his last three (including a straight-sets Geneva win over Mannarino) but suffered a long, draining three-set loss to Tommy Paul in Miami. Ruud is in solid shape too, winning in Geneva and Rome’s lead-up matches aside from a straight-sets loss to Jannik Sinner; his form index is higher, reflecting steadier results.