Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Corentin Moutet vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
48%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
52%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 1357.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 127.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.8
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 53.5
ELO Rating: 1689.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1757.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.0
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet

  • Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (2-1) hard Paris 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) hard Vienna 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) hard Vienna 135 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) hard Vienna 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) hard Almaty 156 min

Alexander Bublik

  • Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Paris 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) hard Vienna 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-0) hard Vienna 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (1-2) hard Shanghai 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The highly anticipated match between Corentin Moutet and Alexander Bublik takes place in the Round of 32 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, France. Both players are set to compete on hard courts, with Bublik slightly favored to win, having a probability of 52.43% compared to Moutet's 47.57%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Corentin Moutet is currently ranked 32nd and boasts a form index of 57.29 and an Elo rating of 1357.12. However, he carries a fatigue level of 127 minutes, which may impact his performance. His surface strength index is 10.80, showcasing a decent ability on hard courts. Notably, Moutet's mean serve index stands at 96.35, while his mean return index is 88.44, indicating a solid serving capability but a relatively weaker return game. On the other hand, Alexander Bublik is ranked 16th with a form index of 53.54 and an Elo rating of 1689.70. He has a lower fatigue level of 74 minutes, suggesting he may be fresher heading into this match. Bublik's surface strength index is slightly higher at 10.98, and his mean serve index is 95.53, close to Moutet's. However, his mean return index of 85.42 indicates a notable gap of over 5 points in favor of Moutet, which could play a crucial role in the match dynamics. In their recent performances, Moutet won his last match against Reilly Opelka but faced a disappointing loss to Lorenzo Musetti just prior. Bublik, conversely, comes off a win against Alexei Popyrin, despite a prior setback against Jannik Sinner.

Final Prediction

The slight edge for Alexander Bublik stems from his higher rank, lower fatigue, and overall experience in high-pressure situations. While Moutet has shown resilience, particularly in his recent victory, Bublik's recent form and ability to handle the hard court surface effectively could be decisive in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Bublik's serve against Moutet's return game, as it may dictate the flow of the match.