Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Daniel Altmaier vs Marin Cilic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #44
52%
VS

Marin Cilic

Rank: #70
48%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #44 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #51 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #67 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #101 2025-01-13

Marin Cilic

  • Current #70 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #89 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #64 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #109 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #181 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 20.6
ELO Rating: 1088.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 67.5
Return Rating: 62.0

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 43.3
ELO Rating: 779.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1533.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.2
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 21.3
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 92.6

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Marin Cilic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Marin Cilic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Australian Open continues as Daniel Altmaier faces Marin Cilic in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With a close matchup forecasted, Altmaier is slightly favored to win with a probability of 52.36%, while Cilic trails at 47.64%. The expected total number of games in the match stands at 37.81, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Daniel Altmaier, currently ranked 44, has a form index of 20.64 and an Elo rating of 1088.46. His surface strength index is 6.60, indicating moderate performance on hard courts, while his mean serve index (67.45) is significantly lower than Marin Cilic's (97.49), reflecting Cilic's power in serving. On the other hand, Cilic, ranked 70, has a higher form index of 43.27 and an Elo rating of 779.06, showcasing that he has been in better competitive form recently. His return index (92.65) also outstrips Altmaier's (61.95) by a notable margin, suggesting that Cilic may have the advantage in returning serves. Looking at their recent performances, Altmaier has struggled, losing all three of his last matches in straight sets. His last match against Jaume Munar lasted 64 minutes, where he couldn't secure a set. Conversely, Cilic has had mixed results, winning one of his last three matches, notably defeating Adrian Mannarino in straight sets. Cilic's victory came after two consecutive losses, suggesting that he may be finding some rhythm, which could be crucial in this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Marin Cilic) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Daniel Altmaier wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is 21.9, which aligns with the hard court surface that generally supports both powerful servers and strong returners. With Cilic's high mean serve index, he is likely to contribute significantly to the ace count. The expected double faults prediction is around 5.92, which is reasonable given both players' serving capabilities. The balance in serve and return power on this surface may mitigate the impact of double faults, but players’ consistency will be vital.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.9 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Daniel Altmaier's slight edge in this matchup stems from his marginally higher probability of winning, despite recent struggles. Key factors to observe will include Cilic's ability to capitalize on his superior serving and returning metrics, which could sway the match in his favor if he manages to maintain consistency throughout the encounter.

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