Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
38%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
62%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #18 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-09-30)

Alexander Zverev

  • Current Rank: #3 (2025-09-22)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 2981.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2074.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 159.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.0

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 64.4
ELO Rating: 5854.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1882.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 248.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.7
Clay: 54.0
Grass: 59.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Beijing 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Beijing 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 191 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (2-0) hard Hangzhou 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Beijing 158 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Beijing 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Cincinnati 105 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Alexander Zverev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinals of the Beijing tournament feature a compelling matchup between Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev on hard courts. With Zverev ranked 3rd and Medvedev at 18th, the latter faces an uphill battle. Zverev is favored to win with a probability of 62.28%, while Medvedev has a 37.72% chance. The predicted total number of games in this match is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 18th, holds a form index of 51.60 and an Elo rating of 2981.90. His cumulative fatigue stands at 159 minutes, indicating he has had a relatively lighter load in the current tournament. Medvedev's surface strength index is 29.01, with a mean serve index of 96.66 and a mean return index of 87.97. In contrast, Alexander Zverev, ranked 3rd, boasts a much higher form index of 64.36 and an Elo rating of 5854.05. Zverev's fatigue is notably higher at 248 minutes, but his surface strength index of 52.70 surpasses Medvedev's by a significant margin. The difference in their mean serve indices is minimal, but Zverev's mean return index is slightly lower than Medvedev's, highlighting a competitive serving dynamic. Analyzing their recent performances, Medvedev has won his last two matches convincingly, defeating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Cameron Norrie without dropping a set. However, he suffered a defeat against Yibing Wu in his third most recent match. Zverev also comes into this match with confidence after winning his last two encounters against Corentin Moutet and Lorenzo Sonego, although he did face a setback against Felix Auger-Aliassime at the US Open.

Final Prediction

Alexander Zverev's higher rank, superior form index, and recent performances give him a distinct advantage heading into this quarterfinal match. The key factor to watch will be Zverev's ability to manage his fatigue and maintain his serving efficiency, as this could significantly impact the match's outcome.