Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #25
36%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #25 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #24 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #62 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #42 2024-05-06

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #11 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #4 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #5 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #4 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 44.5
ELO Rating: 1578.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 100.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 14.8
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 87.0

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 54.1
ELO Rating: 4021.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2182.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 92.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.0
Clay: 39.8
Grass: 45.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) clay Rome 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) clay Madrid 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Madrid 63 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 72 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alexei Popyrin and Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 32 at the Rome Masters 1000 promises to be an intriguing clash on clay. With Medvedev, ranked 11th, favored to win, he holds a probability of 63.71%, while Popyrin's chances stand at 36.29%. The predicted total number of games played is approximately 23.

Match Analysis

Alexei Popyrin, currently ranked 25th, has a form index of 44.54 and an Elo rating of 1578.60. His cumulative fatigue level stands at 100 minutes, indicating he has spent significant time on court in this tournament. Popyrin's surface strength index is relatively low at 13.24, which may hinder his performance on clay. His mean serve index of 98.26 shows he has a strong serve, though it is only marginally higher than Medvedev's mean serve index of 95.21. However, Popyrin's mean return index of 87.04 is notably lower than Medvedev's 88.61, giving the latter an advantage in return games. Daniil Medvedev's recent form has been mixed, with a form index of 54.08 and an Elo rating significantly higher at 4021.86. He has shown resilience, having recently defeated Cameron Norrie in Rome, while also experiencing a tough loss to Casper Ruud in Madrid. Medvedev's fatigue level is slightly lower at 92 minutes, suggesting he may be fresher heading into this match. His superior surface strength index of 39.85 also indicates a better adaptation to clay courts compared to Popyrin.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev has the edge in this matchup due to his higher ranking, better recent performances, and superior return game. A key factor to watch will be how Popyrin's serve holds up against Medvedev's strong returns, which could determine the pace and outcome of the match.

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