Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #15
63%
VS

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #63
37%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #15 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-08-26)

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current Rank: #63 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #62 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #75 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #129 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 33.7
ELO Rating: 3225.1
Glicko2 Rating: 2095.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.1
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.8

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 49.0
ELO Rating: 1018.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 7.0
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Adam Walton (1-2) hard Cincinnati 141 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (1-2) hard Toronto 150 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Toronto 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) hard Washington 145 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Washington 69 min

Benjamin Bonzi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Cincinnati 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-1) hard Cincinnati 159 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-1) hard Cincinnati 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) hard Cincinnati 177 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adam Walton (1-2) hard Toronto 117 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Benjamin Bonzi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

As Daniil Medvedev faces Benjamin Bonzi in the Round of 128 at the US Open in New York, the match promises to be an intriguing contest on hard courts. Medvedev is predicted to emerge victorious with a probability of 62.96%, while Bonzi holds a 37.04% chance of winning. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is 36.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 15th, has a solid form index of 33.65 and an impressive Elo rating of 3225.09, reflecting his experience and skill on hard surfaces. He has a surface strength index of 31.13, indicating his proficiency on this court type. Medvedev's mean serve index stands at 96.72, which is slightly higher than Bonzi's 95.46, though the difference is not significant enough to highlight a distinct advantage. However, his mean return index of 87.80 is notably superior to Bonzi's 86.32, providing him with a heightened ability to capitalize on return opportunities. Benjamin Bonzi, ranked 63rd, has a higher form index of 48.97, suggesting he may be in better recent form despite his lower ranking and Elo rating of 1018.04. His performances over the last three matches have been mixed; he lost against Felix Auger-Aliassime but secured wins against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti. In contrast, Medvedev has had a less favorable run, losing his last two matches and only winning one out of his last three. This recent dip in form could influence his performance against Bonzi.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's experience and superior return game provide him with a competitive edge in this matchup. While both players have shown varying levels of form, Medvedev’s ability to return effectively could be the key factor that determines the outcome of the match. Observing how he handles Bonzi’s serve will be crucial in establishing control early on in the match.