Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Auger-Aliassime comes mainly from surface fit, recent results at this level, and overall strength. Surface fit contributes 3.9 percentage points toward Felix, recent record by level adds 3.4 points, and overall strength and serve and return combine for another near 6 points in his favor. Those factors align with the underlying numbers. Auger-Aliassime sits higher in the rankings at 4 versus Tiafoe at 23. His Elo is also stronger at 1921 versus 1838. Felix carries a higher form index at 72.33 compared with Tiafoe’s 60.38, and his surface strength index is slightly higher at 41.60 versus 38.97. Fatigue leans to Tiafoe, who has logged 205 minutes this event against Felix’s 174 minutes. Serving and returning figures are close. Mean serve indices are nearly identical, so no single player has a marked serve advantage. Neither player posts a return index gap greater than five points, though Tiafoe’s return index is a touch higher. Tiafoe’s recent form includes two hard court wins in Cincinnati after a loss in Toronto. Auger-Aliassime arrives unbeaten so far in Cincinnati, with straight set wins over Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and a five-set loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon before this stretch. The model did grant Tiafoe a small boost for recent form worth 1.7 percentage points.