Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Hurkacz comes mainly from two factors: recent record by level and the combined serve & return game. Hurkacz’s recent run at this tournament is compelling — straight-set wins over Casper Ruud and Sebastian Ofner and a 3-1 win over Tommy Paul — which the model credits heavily. Struff is also in good form, including a straight-sets victory over Daniil Medvedev and two five-set wins, but the model rates Hurkacz’s recent results as stronger by level. The age factor and a small overall strength edge also nudge the prediction toward Hurkacz. On paper the matchup favors Hurkacz’s all-around game. Hurkacz is ranked 96 with an Elo of 1747.7 and a form index of 71.08; Struff is ranked 74 with an Elo of 1721.6 and a form index of 69.26. Both players show identical tournament court time (fatigue 522 minutes), so endurance looks evenly matched on the ledger. Surface strength slightly favors Struff (28.76 vs 23.83), but Hurkacz’s superior mean return index (90.32 vs 84.76 — a >5-point gap) gives him an important grass-court advantage in breaking opportunities; their mean serve indices are very close (97.46 vs 95.64), so big-serving parity is expected. Over the last three matches Hurkacz’s wins have been more decisive, while Struff’s pathway included two marathon five-setters.