Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
82%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #29
18%
Expected Total Games: 33.0
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 73.7
ELO Rating: 11319.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2169.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 98.9
Clay: 97.8
Grass: 98.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.2

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 54.0
ELO Rating: 1063.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner

Denis Shapovalov

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the 2025 US Open, Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov face off on hard courts in New York, a vital stage in this Grand Slam tournament. The predicted winner is Jannik Sinner, with an impressive probability of winning at 81.76%, while Denis Shapovalov has a probability of 18.24%. The match is expected to feature approximately 33 games.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 1st, Jannik Sinner boasts a high form index of 73.75 and a strong Elo rating of 11319.28, indicating his dominance in the sport. His surface strength index of 98.88 signifies exceptional performance on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 97.65 and a mean return index of 89.20. In contrast, Denis Shapovalov, ranked 29th, has a form index of 54.00 and an Elo rating of 1063.72. His surface strength index stands at a mere 13.13, while his mean serve and return indices of 95.59 and 85.97 demonstrate a significant gap in serving and returning abilities. The differences in serve and return indices are notably pronounced, with Sinner leading by more than 5 points in both categories, which could be critical in this matchup. Recent performances reveal Sinner's consistency; he won his last match convincingly against Alexei Popyrin in straight sets, while his earlier loss to Carlos Alcaraz in Cincinnati shows he is capable of facing tough challenges. Shapovalov, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results, winning his latest match against Valentin Royer but struggling in earlier encounters in Cincinnati and Toronto, where he lost to lower-ranked opponents.

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior ranking, consistent recent form, and impressive statistics on hard courts provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Sinner's serve, as his ability to dominate on serve could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.

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