Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #24
17%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
83%
Expected Total Games: 36.7
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #24 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #46 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #46 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-01-13

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #2 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #1 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 86.5
ELO Rating: 1641.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 11.5
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 69.5
Return Rating: 39.1

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 11500.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 96.4

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Australian Open 2026, Luciano Darderi faces Jannik Sinner on hard courts in Australia. With Sinner holding a significant advantage, he is predicted to win with an 82.81% probability, while Darderi's chances stand at 17.19%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.72.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner, currently ranked 2, boasts a flawless form index of 100.0 and an impressive Elo rating of 11500. His surface strength index of 100.0 reflects his exceptional performance on hard courts. In contrast, Luciano Darderi, ranked 24, has a form index of 86.53 and an Elo rating of 1641.07. While Darderi has a respectable mean serve index of 69.52, Sinner's significantly higher serve index of 96.95 grants him a clear edge in this matchup. Moreover, Sinner's return index of 96.39 greatly surpasses Darderi's 39.10, indicating a stark advantage in returning serve. Both players enter this match with a cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes. Darderi has shown resilience in his last three matches, securing victories against Karen Khachanov, Sebastian Baez, and Cristian Garin, winning each in four sets. Sinner has also been dominant, winning his last three matches against Eliot Spizzirri, James Duckworth, and Hugo Gaston, with a clean sweep over Duckworth and a strong performance against Gaston.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.7 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Jannik Sinner) +8.2 Most likely spread: +8 (Luciano Darderi wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 8.89 aces and 6.37 double faults, reflecting the balanced nature of hard court play. Given Sinner's significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces. The hard court surface typically favors a moderate number of aces, and this balance will be crucial as both players look to capitalize on service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior serve and return capabilities, coupled with his current form, position him as the favorite to win against Darderi. A key factor to monitor will be Sinner's serving performance, as it could dictate the flow of the match and potentially lead to a decisive victory.

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