Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #63
25%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #25
75%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #63 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #53 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #165 2025-05-19

Casper Ruud

  • Current #25 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 20.8
ELO Rating: 1505.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1510.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 14.7
Grass: 18.1
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 94.1

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 1923.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1865.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 45.6
Grass: 27.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 83.5

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Casper Ruud
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Geneva ATP 250 on clay, Round of 32 pits Jenson Brooksby against Casper Ruud in a contrast of styles on a slow, high-bouncing surface. The model favors Casper Ruud to win (75.10%) over Jenson Brooksby (24.90%), with a projected total of about 26.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ruud (rank 25) arrives with a substantially higher Elo (1923.8) and a stronger form index (55.06) than Brooksby (rank 63, Elo 1505.7, form 20.79). Both players show no accumulated tournament fatigue, but Ruud’s surface strength index (45.58) dwarfs Brooksby’s (14.71), suggesting Ruud is considerably more comfortable on clay. Brooksby’s mean serve (95.66) and Ruud’s mean serve (94.90) are nearly identical, so there’s no clear serving advantage; however Brooksby’s mean return index (94.05) is markedly higher than Ruud’s (83.53), a gap worth noting for return games. Recent results underline the statistical gap: Brooksby has lost his last three clay matches in straight sets (Houston, Madrid, Rome), failing to take a set in those outings. Ruud’s recent clay form is more positive — two wins in Rome before a loss to Jannik Sinner — showing deeper runs and tougher match play at this time of year. Those trends, combined with Elo and surface indices, favor Ruud controlling rallies and dictating lengthier exchanges.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jenson Brooksby - Casper Ruud) -2.8 Most likely spread: -3 (Casper Ruud wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 8.93 for the match with expected double faults around 4.04. On clay, predicted aces are suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, reducing easy service winners; the expected double faults reflect clay’s longer rallies and potential for late-match fatigue. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating to drive up the ace count, so the aces prediction leans on both achieving modest service highlights.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jenson Brooksby's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (49.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s superior Elo, higher clay comfort and steadier recent results give him the clear edge in Geneva. Watch return games and how Brooksby uses his strong return index early — successful pressure there is the main path to an upset.

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