Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #45
32%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #13
68%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #45 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-07-28
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #35 2025-01-27
  • 12 mo ago #52 2024-10-28

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #13 2025-10-27
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-07-28
  • 6 mo ago #10 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #7 2025-01-27
  • 12 mo ago #5 2024-10-28

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 42.9
ELO Rating: 1141.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 204.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.8
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 85.0

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 57.6
ELO Rating: 2859.6
Glicko2 Rating: 2066.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.9
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Sonego
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Sonego
vs
1
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, Daniil Medvedev is set to face Lorenzo Sonego on hard courts. Based on current form and statistics, Medvedev is favored to win with a probability of 68.34%, while Sonego has a 31.66% chance of emerging victorious. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 24.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev enters this match ranked 13th with a form index of 57.57 and an impressive Elo rating of 2859.59. His cumulative fatigue stands at 70 minutes from previous matches, indicating a relatively fresh state. Medvedev has a surface strength index of 27.93, significantly higher than Sonego’s 9.79, which underscores his proficiency on hard courts. His mean serve index of 95.25 suggests a solid serving capability, while his mean return index of 87.45 illustrates strong return skills. Conversely, Lorenzo Sonego, ranked 45th, has a form index of 42.91 and an Elo rating of 1141.18. With 204 minutes of cumulative fatigue, Sonego is at a disadvantage in terms of endurance. His mean serve index of 97.56 is notably higher than Medvedev’s by nearly 2.3 points, yet his mean return index of 84.97 is lower, giving Medvedev an edge in return game effectiveness. In his last three matches, Sonego managed two wins but showed signs of fatigue, while Medvedev has won two out of three matches, including a strong performance in his last match against Jaume Munar.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev’s superior rank, form, and surface strength, coupled with his effective return game, provide him with a distinct advantage in this matchup. A crucial factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Sonego's serve against Medvedev's return capabilities, as this could heavily influence the match's outcome.

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