Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper Auger-Aliassime carries the superior credentials: a top-5 ranking, an Elo of 1816.7 and a strong mean serve index (96.8). His form index (41.03) is lower than Navone’s (51.26), but Auger-Aliassime’s higher Elo and ranking underline a gap in quality. Surface strength indexes are modest for both on clay (Felix 29.85, Navone 26.82), suggesting neither is a clay specialist, though Felix has the slight edge. Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Auger-Aliassime arrives with zero minutes on court in this event, while Navone has already logged 103 minutes. Recent results paint a mixed picture. Auger-Aliassime has two tough clay losses in big events (to Jannik Sinner and Alexander Blockx) with a win over Vilius Gaubas sandwiched between; those matches were competitive but he arrives without recent tournament mileage in Rome. Navone comes in with momentum from a 103-minute first-round victory over Denis Shapovalov in Rome and earlier wins in Madrid (including Nuno Borges), with a three-set loss to Alexander Zverev in between. Navone’s recent form index reflects that confidence, but his cumulative minutes could become a factor on slow clay.