Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #67
59%
VS

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #94
41%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Hamad Medjedovic

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Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 69.1
ELO Rating: 1757.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1794.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 428.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.6
Clay: 28.7
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.4

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 62.8
ELO Rating: 1720.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1757.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 458.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.7
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic

Martin Landaluce

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Martin Landaluce
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Rome (clay) at a Masters 1000 event pits Hamad Medjedovic against Martin Landaluce. The model favors Medjedovic to advance (58.83% vs 41.17%) with a predicted total of about 25.67 games in the match — a contest likely to be settled in straight sets or a tight three-setter.

Match Analysis

Medjedovic arrives ranked 67 with an Elo of 1757.5 and a form index of 69.13. He also posts a markedly higher surface strength index on clay (28.72) than Landaluce, which suggests greater comfort on slow, high-bounce courts. Landaluce is ranked 94, with an Elo of 1720.2 and a form index of 62.85; his surface strength index is substantially lower at 10.02. Fatigue figures show Landaluce with 458 minutes on court this event against Medjedovic’s 428 minutes, a modest but relevant difference given the physical demands of clay. Both players carry strong serve and return metrics — Medjedovic’s mean serve index is 96.63 and his mean return index 91.37, while Landaluce posts 93.66 (serve) and 86.40 (return). Recent form in Rome favors Medjedovic, who has won three straight matches (including a long 182-minute encounter), demonstrating consistency across three rounds. Landaluce has also been impressive, knocking out higher-profile opponents with two straight-set wins before this round, but he did drop a three-setter earlier in the event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hamad Medjedovic - Martin Landaluce) +1.0 Most likely spread: +1 (Hamad Medjedovic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. Positive values indicate Hamad Medjedovic winning more games, negative values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 9.28 total (predicted aces), while the double faults prediction is roughly 6.7 (expected double faults). On clay, fewer outright aces are typical because the surface slows the ball and produces higher bounce; that dynamic supports the relatively modest aces prediction. Neither player’s serve index is overwhelmingly higher, so the ace count should stay in line with the surface-driven expectation, while fatigue can elevate the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.3 Most likely: 9 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Hamad Medjedovic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hamad Medjedovic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.9%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Hamad Medjedovic's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Medjedovic’s superior clay profile, higher Elo and slightly better form give him the edge in a compact forecast. Watch how both players handle extended rallies and serve consistency late in matches — endurance and return efficiency will likely decide the outcome.

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