Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #61
37%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #16
63%
Expected Total Games: 38.1
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #61 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #72 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #44 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #44 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #39 (2025-01-13)

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #16 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #15 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #10 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #9 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 865.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1634.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 74.3
Return Rating: 54.7

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 48.6
ELO Rating: 2510.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1850.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.7
Clay: 50.3
Grass: 49.9
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 94.8

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-1) hard Brisbane 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Paris 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Vienna 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Vienna 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Vienna 107 min

Andrey Rublev
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 163 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Hong Kong 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-1) hard Hong Kong 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Paris 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Paris 80 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Australian Open in 2026 features a round of 128 matchup between Matteo Arnaldi and Andrey Rublev on hard courts. Rublev, the higher-ranked player, is favored to win with a probability of 62.78%, compared to Arnaldi's 37.22%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 38.13 games played.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 61, has a form index of 41.23 and an Elo rating of 865.52. His surface strength index stands at 6.72, indicating limited effectiveness on hard courts, while his mean serve index is 74.30 and his mean return index is 54.75. In contrast, Andrey Rublev ranks 16th, boasting a significantly higher Elo rating of 2510.01 and a form index of 48.63. His surface strength index is 38.69, with an impressive mean serve index of 98.06 and a mean return index of 94.79. The discrepancy in serve index of nearly 25 points may heavily influence the match, favoring Rublev's powerful serve. Recent performances show Arnaldi winning only one of his last three matches, defeating Hugo Gaston in Brisbane while losing to Jacob Fearnley and Alexander Zverev. Rublev, despite a recent defeat to Lorenzo Musetti in Hong Kong, previously secured victories against Nuno Borges and Yibing Wu. This inconsistent form for Arnaldi, coupled with Rublev's higher overall ranking and performance metrics, positions Rublev as the likely victor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.1 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 18 aces, with predicted double faults at approximately 8.45. Given the hard court surface, which tends to balance the playing field for servers and returners, these figures reflect a realistic assessment of both players' capabilities. Rublev's superior serve index suggests he may contribute a higher share of the expected aces, while Arnaldi's serve stats indicate potential for double faults, especially under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.0 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.4 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Andrey Rublev's extensive experience and higher statistical ratings across serve and return metrics give him a definitive edge in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be how well Arnaldi can handle Rublev's powerful serve and whether he can capitalize on any opportunities to break serve.

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