Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #37
64%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #78
36%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #37 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #34 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #37 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #30 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #36 2024-05-20

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #78 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #93 2025-02-17
  • 6 mo ago #74 2024-11-18
  • 9 mo ago #61 2024-08-19
  • 12 mo ago #104 2024-05-20

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 1351.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 32.5
ELO Rating: 708.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Hugo Gaston
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Matteo Arnaldi and Hugo Gaston in the Round of 32 at the Geneva tournament promises to be an intriguing clash on clay. Both players are looking to advance in this ATP 250 event held in Switzerland. Matteo Arnaldi is favored to win with a probability of 63.78%, while Hugo Gaston has a 36.22% chance. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 37th, has a form index of 38.30 and an Elo rating of 1351.51, indicating a solid level of play. His surface strength index of 12.36 suggests that he is relatively strong on clay, while his mean serve index of 97.08, compared to Gaston's 95.26, highlights a notable advantage in serving. Additionally, Arnaldi's mean return index of 88.19 is slightly lower than Gaston's 89.47 but still indicates a competitive edge. With a cumulative fatigue of 0.0 minutes, he enters the match fresh. On the other hand, Hugo Gaston is ranked 78th and has a form index of 32.46 along with an Elo rating of 708.16, reflecting recent struggles. His recent performances have been marked by defeats, including back-to-back losses in the Rome and Madrid tournaments. Gaston has not been able to secure a win in his last two matches, which may affect his confidence. Although he secured a victory against Luca Nardi three matches ago, his overall form suggests that he may struggle against a higher-ranked opponent like Arnaldi.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's higher ranking, superior serve index, and overall better recent form provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match. A key factor to monitor will be Arnaldi's ability to capitalize on his serving strength, which could be crucial in determining the match's outcome. As both players aim for a strong performance, Arnaldi's consistency could prove decisive.

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