Geneva
Switzerland
Clay
Atp 250
Round of 32
Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston Prediction
Matteo Arnaldi
Rank: #37
64%
VS
Hugo Gaston
Rank: #78
36%
Predicted Games Played:
22.0
Predicted Winner:
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking Trends
Matteo Arnaldi
- Current Rank: #37 (2025-05-05)
- 3 Months Ago: #34 (2025-02-17)
- 6 Months Ago: #37 (2024-11-18)
- 9 Months Ago: #30 (2024-08-19)
- 12 Months Ago: #36 (2024-05-20)
Hugo Gaston
- Current Rank: #78 (2025-05-05)
- 3 Months Ago: #93 (2025-02-17)
- 6 Months Ago: #74 (2024-11-18)
- 9 Months Ago: #61 (2024-08-19)
- 12 Months Ago: #104 (2024-05-20)
Player Metrics
Matteo Arnaldi
Form Index:
38.3
ELO Rating:
1351.5
Glicko2 Rating:
1619.2
Current Fatigue (minutes):
0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
12.0
Clay:
12.4
Grass:
11.6
Serve Rating:
97.1
Return Rating:
88.2
Hugo Gaston
Form Index:
32.5
ELO Rating:
708.2
Glicko2 Rating:
1555.4
Current Fatigue (minutes):
0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
6.5
Clay:
7.1
Grass:
6.4
Serve Rating:
95.3
Return Rating:
89.5
Recent Matches
Matteo Arnaldi
- Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2) clay Rome 114 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-1) clay Madrid 77 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) clay Madrid 97 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Madrid 104 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (2-0) clay Madrid 101 min
Hugo Gaston
- Last Match: vs Nicolas Jarry (0-2) clay Rome 111 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Ofner (0-2) clay Madrid 78 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (2-0) clay Madrid 80 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) clay Madrid 164 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) clay Barcelona 64 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
The matchup between Matteo Arnaldi and Hugo Gaston in the Round of 32 at the Geneva tournament promises to be an intriguing clash on clay. Both players are looking to advance in this ATP 250 event held in Switzerland. Matteo Arnaldi is favored to win with a probability of 63.78%, while Hugo Gaston has a 36.22% chance. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.
Match Analysis
Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 37th, has a form index of 38.30 and an Elo rating of 1351.51, indicating a solid level of play. His surface strength index of 12.36 suggests that he is relatively strong on clay, while his mean serve index of 97.08, compared to Gaston's 95.26, highlights a notable advantage in serving. Additionally, Arnaldi's mean return index of 88.19 is slightly lower than Gaston's 89.47 but still indicates a competitive edge. With a cumulative fatigue of 0.0 minutes, he enters the match fresh.
On the other hand, Hugo Gaston is ranked 78th and has a form index of 32.46 along with an Elo rating of 708.16, reflecting recent struggles. His recent performances have been marked by defeats, including back-to-back losses in the Rome and Madrid tournaments. Gaston has not been able to secure a win in his last two matches, which may affect his confidence. Although he secured a victory against Luca Nardi three matches ago, his overall form suggests that he may struggle against a higher-ranked opponent like Arnaldi.
Final Prediction
Matteo Arnaldi's higher ranking, superior serve index, and overall better recent form provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this match. A key factor to monitor will be Arnaldi's ability to capitalize on his serving strength, which could be crucial in determining the match's outcome. As both players aim for a strong performance, Arnaldi's consistency could prove decisive.