Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Tommy Paul vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Tommy Paul

Rank: #12
51%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #20
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #12 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #13 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #12 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #16 2024-05-06

Tomas Machac

  • Current #20 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #25 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #25 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #39 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #45 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 53.3
ELO Rating: 2657.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1776.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 23.6
Grass: 26.1
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.4

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 44.7
ELO Rating: 1559.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 16.6
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) clay Rome 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (1-2) clay Madrid 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) hard Miami 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
2
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Rome Masters 1000, Tommy Paul is set to face Tomas Machac on the clay courts of Italy. With a close predicted outcome, Paul is slightly favored to win with a probability of 51.13%, while Machac holds a 48.87% chance. The total number of games expected to be played in this tightly contested match is predicted to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul, currently ranked 12th, boasts a form index of 53.28, a solid Elo rating of approximately 2658, and a fatigue level of 80 minutes on court. His surface strength index on clay stands at 23.59, indicating a strong capability on this surface. Notably, Paul's mean serve index of 97.10 outshines Machac's 95.63 by more than 5 points, which may give him an edge in service games. In contrast, Machac, ranked 20th, has a lower form index of 44.70 and an Elo rating of around 1559, showing a significant gap in experience and recent performance. In their recent matches, Paul secured a decisive victory against Roberto Bautista Agut in his last outing, winning in straight sets after a challenging previous match against Jack Draper. Meanwhile, Machac also triumphed over Learner Tien in his last match but faced setbacks against Jacob Fearnley and Alex de Minaur in prior tournaments, indicating some inconsistency in his recent performances.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul's slight edge in serve quality and recent form positions him as the favored player heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Machac can handle Paul's serve, as his ability to return effectively could significantly influence the match's dynamics.

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