Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar Prediction

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #31
28%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #11
72%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

Why the Model Favors Rafael Jodar

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.9 Rafael Jodar
Surface fit +3.6 Rafael Jodar
Overall record & opposition quality +3.3 Rafael Jodar
Recent form +2.5 Rafael Jodar
Overall strength +1.9 Rafael Jodar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 72% for Rafael Jodar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #31 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-10-27

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #11 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #24 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #42 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #150 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #207 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 40.3
ELO Rating: 1759.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1760.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 119.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.9
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 87.5

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1944.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1939.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 85.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.2
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Rafael Jodar
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Vacherot
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rafael Jodar is favoured to reach the next round, with a 72% win probability against Valentin Vacherot’s 28%, and the match is projected to last 25.3 games. The Round of 16 meeting in Basel is expected to be competitive, despite Jodar’s clear advantage in the forecast.

Match Analysis

Jodar’s stronger recent record at this level and better fit on hard courts are the main separation points. He is also ranked 11th to Vacherot’s 31st and has the stronger return, which could help him put pressure on Vacherot’s service games. Both arrive off straight-set wins in Basel, Jodar over Alejandro Tabilo and Vacherot over Mariano Navone. Jodar’s better recent form and broader record against quality opposition support the forecast, while Vacherot’s victory gives him a timely result to build on.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Valentin Vacherot - Rafael Jodar) -2.6 Most likely spread: -3 (Rafael Jodar wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Vacherot is projected to hit 8.1 aces and make 2.7 double faults, compared with 5.2 aces and 1.8 double faults for Jodar. Vacherot’s stronger serve numbers point to the bigger ace haul, while both players’ projections allow for some double-fault risk on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Valentin Vacherot 8.1 + Rafael Jodar 5.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Valentin Vacherot 2.6 + Rafael Jodar 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 8.1 aces

Rafael Jodar

Expected 5.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 2.6 double faults

Rafael Jodar

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Valentin Vacherot's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (47.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s serve is the clearest way to unsettle the forecast: if it consistently earns cheap points, it could limit Jodar’s return advantage and keep the match close.

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